Bills quarterback Josh Allen warms up before tonightâ€™s Bills home game against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024.

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Super Bowl LIX Favorites: Bills favored to win the Super Bowl first time in 716 days

Bills lead Super Bowl odds after key win over Lions.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen warms up before tonightâ€™s Bills home game against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024.

The Buffalo Bills are now Super Bowl favorites. This is the first time in 716 days they’ve held the top spot, and it comes after a commanding 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions. That win reshaped the betting landscape.

Buffalo’s odds moved from +600 to +375 after securing their 11th win of the season. The Lions, who entered Week 15 as favorites, dropped to +450 and tied with the Chiefs. Injuries have hit Detroit hard. David Montgomery, Alim McNeill, and Khalil Dorsey are all out for the season. The team’s depth is dwindling at a crucial time.

AFC shake-up

The Chiefs, previously a constant at the top of the AFC, have fallen behind Buffalo in the odds. Kansas City is now at +240, while Buffalo leads at +180. The Chiefs’ slip has as much to do with Patrick Mahomes’ ankle sprain as Buffalo’s dominance.

The Buffalo Bills are currently the favorites to win the Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/CkpneGSBPY
— Drink More Water | Get More Sleep 🐬 (@hughart_michael) December 18, 2024

Mahomes left Sunday’s game against the Browns early. His status for the coming stretch remains uncertain. The Chiefs face three games in 11 days, including matchups against the Texans and Steelers. The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, have an easier road with two games against the Patriots and one against the Jets.

Josh Allen is at the center of it all. Over the last two weeks, Allen has racked up 704 passing yards, 150 rushing yards, and 10 total touchdowns. He is now the MVP favorite at -1000 odds.

Lions’ tough road ahead

Detroit, once sitting comfortably as the NFC’s top seed, is in trouble. Injuries have ravaged the defense, and the Lions’ final three games are significantly tougher than the Eagles’ schedule. Detroit still holds a tiebreaker over Philadelphia, but momentum is slipping.

"I do think that is correct, that the Bills are the Super Bowl favorite"

Bills superfan @MaggieGray says Buffalo is the team to beat in the NFL 👀 pic.twitter.com/XuMiR28Ub8
— Maggie and Perloff (@MaggieandPerl) December 16, 2024

The Eagles, sitting at +400, are tied with the Lions for the second-best Super Bowl odds. Their 10-game win streak is the longest in the league, and they’ve climbed to 12-2 with one of the NFL’s most complete rosters. The NFC race is tightening fast.

The Buffalo Bills moment

Buffalo now leads Super Bowl betting, with an implied probability of 21.1%. It’s a shift in perception, driven by dominance on the field and key injuries to their competitors. The Bills have waited for this spotlight. The next three weeks will decide if they can hold it.

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Natasha Bose

I write about sports because, well, it brings in the big bucks! I’m not some lifelong analyst or stats guru, truth being told, you’ve probably never heard of me!—I just know how to research, write, and make things sound good. That’s the job!
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