NFL 2025–26 Week 15 Playoff Chances and Odds for All Teams – Broncos Swap with Patriots to Grab AFC Top Seed, Rams Back to 1 Seed As Bears Fall to Seventh

Not a whole lot has changed in the NFL playoff picture for teams after the Week 14 slate of games, but for some teams, like the Texans, Colts, and Bears.

The win over the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football (SNF) means that the Texans are now in seventh place in the AFC and currently hold the final playoff berth, while the Colts’ loss to the Jaguars has sent them out of the playoffs into the 8th spot. The Steelers and the Ravens switched places yet again following Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore.

In the NFC, the Bears, who came into Week 14 as the number 1 seed, have fallen all the way to the number 7 seed after losing to the Packers. Things are getting pretty tight now on both sides of the bracket.

Having said that, let us now take a look at the latest playoff chances for all teams ahead of Week 15 as per the official NFL website.

NFL 2025–26 Teams to Make the Playoffs As per Current Standings

On the AFC side of things, the Broncos and Patriots continue to win games and increase their chances of making the postseason. These teams are basically a lock to progress with the NFL’s official predictor handing them a 99% chance of going through.

The Jaguars and the Bills are the two other teams with extremely high chances of making the playoffs, with a 97% and 96% chance, respectively. The Texans were out of the playoffs last week, but now have an 88% chance as the current seventh seed, while the Chargers and Steelers hold a 76% and 66% chance, respectively.

The table below represents the AFC playoff picture if the season ended today, with odds sourced by FanDuel.

Seed	Team	Record	Playoff Probability	FanDuel Odds
1	Denver Broncos	11-2	99%	Not Provided
2	New England Patriots	11-2	99%	Not Provided
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	9-4	97%	-20000
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	7-6	66%	-152
5	Los Angeles Chargers	9-4	76%	-375
6	Buffalo Bills	9-4	96%	-20000
7	Houston Texans	8-5	88%	-2000

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Over to the NFC, where five of the seven current seeds have 90% or more chance of progressing. The current number 1 seed, the Rams, are also a near lock at 98%, and they are followed by the Seahawks (98%), Packers (94%), Eagles (93%), and the 49ers (90%).

The Buccaneers share the same record with the Panthers in the NFC South, but their better tiebreaker has them as the fourth seed with a 70% chance of going through, whereas the 9-4 Bears are ironically the seventh seed and have a 65% chance of progressing.

The table below represents the NFC playoff picture if the season ended today, with odds sourced by FanDuel.

Seed	Team	Record	Playoff Probability	FanDuel Odds
1	Los Angeles Rams	10-3	98%	Not Provided
2	Green Bay Packers	9-3-1	94%	-3000
3	Philadelphia Eagles	8-4	93%	-1600
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7-6	70%	-325
5	Seattle Seahawks	10-3	98%	-10000
6	San Francisco 49ers	9-4	90%	-1800
7	Chicago Bears	9-4	65%	-210

If you’re looking for a complete guide to the best NFL betting sites, we’ve got you covered

The NFL playoff picture if the season ended today:

Imagine showing this to someone before the season. pic.twitter.com/2RmxFjC88U
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 8, 2025

AFC Teams in Contention for the Wild Card Spots

Two of the three teams in contention last week have traded places after Week 14. The Texans are now the seventh seed, while the Colts slip to the eighth spot. The Ravens and Steelers swapped spots as well, while the Chiefs still hold on, but with very little chance of making the postseason.

The table below represents the AFC teams still in contention, with odds sourced by FanDuel

Seed	Team	Record	Playoff Probability	FanDuel Odds
8	Indianapolis Colts	8-5	32%	+370
9	Baltimore Ravens	6-7	33%	+152
10	Kansas City Chiefs	6-7	11%	+490

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NFC Teams in Contention for the Wild Card Spots

Nothing has changed in the NFC with regard to the three teams that are still in with a chance of progressing. The Lions, Panthers, and Cowboys all remain in the hunt, but Carolina is now ahead of Dallas in the 9th spot.

The table below represents the NFC teams still in contention, with odds sourced by FanDuel

Seed	Team	Record	Playoff Probability	FanDuel Odds
8	Detroit Lions	8-5	51%	-114
9	Carolina Panthers	7-6	30%	+250
10	Dallas Cowboys	6-6-1	10%	+570

Teams Nearly out of Playoff Contention

The following teams from the AFC and the NFC are nearly out of the race for the postseason. It is very unlikely we will be seeing any of these teams beyond the first week of January.

The table below represents the AFC and NFC teams nearly out of the playoffs

Team	Record	Playoff Probability (Current)
Miami Dolphins	6-7	Less than 1%
Cincinnati Bengals	4-9	1%
Minnesota Vikings	5-8	Less than 1%

For the 15th consecutive year, the Jets will not make the playoffs.

That drought is the longest for any team among the four-major North American sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL). pic.twitter.com/526AQThGpf
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 7, 2025

Teams Out of Playoff Contention

After Week 14, the NFL season for the following teams is already over as they have no chance at making the playoffs. All the teams eliminated from the 2025-26 NFL season are as follows:

New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Las Vegas Raiders
Tennessee Titans
Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
New Orleans Saints
Washington Commanders
New York Giants

All of the above odds are sourced from FanDuel. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Devavrat Kulkarni

nfl

I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!