Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

NFL 2025–26 Week 10 AFC Playoff Picture Contenders and Pretenders – Colts, Patriots, and Broncos Runaway Contenders and Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans Knocking on Doors

The Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals are all missing the playoffs as per the current AFC standings!

Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Week 9 of the 2025-26 NFL season is now in the books, and with that, we have reached the midpoint of the regular season. Quite a few teams are nearly out of the postseason race and will soon be turning their attention to next year, with a keen eye on the upcoming draft.

Week 9 for the AFC teams began with Thursday Night Football (TNF), where the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Miami Dolphins. Other AFC teams to win this past week were the Chargers, Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, Jaguars, and the Bills, providing them a boost ahead of Week 10.

The race to the playoffs is still very much alive for several teams, and it is now that every game begins to feel more important than the previous one. So, here is a look at all the AFC teams and their respective probability to make the postseason as per the official NFL website.

AFC Teams to Make the Playoffs As per Current Standings

The Buffalo Bills, who are 6-2 and second in the AFC East behind the Patriots, have the highest chance of making the playoffs at 93%.

As per the current standings, the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and the Denver Broncos all have the best records in the league with 7 wins and 2 losses. Therefore, these three teams have a playoff probability of 90%, 89%, and 90%, respectively.

The Los Angeles Chargers are next with a 6-3 record and a playoff probability of 69%, while the Pittsburgh Steelers lead the AFC North at the moment with a 5-3 record and come in next with a playoff probability of 62%. As of now, the Jacksonville Jaguars hold the final playoff spot, but their probability of making it to the postseason is just 57%.

The table below represents the AFC playoff picture if the season ended today.

Playoff Seeding	Team	Record	Division	Playoff Probability
1	Indianapolis Colts	7-2	AFC South	90%
2	New England Patriots	7-2	AFC East	89%
3	Denver Broncos	7-2	AFC West	90%
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5-3	AFC North	62%
5	Buffalo Bills	6-2	AFC East	93%
6	Los Angeles Chargers	6-3	AFC West	69%
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	5-3	AFC South	57%

The AFC Playoff Picture pic.twitter.com/F5n4kBBwLP
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 3, 2025

AFC Teams in Contention for the Wild Card Spots

The most interesting team that is currently sitting on the outside and looking in at the AFC playoffs is the Kansas City Chiefs, who hold a 5-4 record. However, they have a 67% chance of making it to the postseason.

The Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans both have a 3-5 record as per the present scenario. However, the Ravens hold a 50% chance of making the playoffs, while the Texans are only at 27%.

At 3-6, the Cincinnati Bengals are nearly out of playoff contention altogether, but are just hanging by the slimmest of margins. Their record also means that they have just a 4% chance of making it to the postseason this year.

AFC Teams Nearly out of Playoff Contention

The Cleveland Browns (2-6), Las Vegas Raiders (2-6), Miami Dolphins (2-7), New York Jets (1-7), and the Tennessee Titans (1-8) are all just a loss or two away from missing the playoffs. Moreover, these teams are also some of the weakest teams in the league, and thus, the probability of advancing to the postseason is as good as over for all of them.

This is how things currently stand in the AFC ahead of the Week 10 games. There will no doubt be several changes taking place, especially between the teams fighting for a playoff spot. As for the others, it is only a matter of time; they fall out of contention without a doubt.

Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

AFC playoff picture

NFL

Devavrat Kulkarni

nfl

I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!