Dec 15, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) jogs off the field after a play during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

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Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances: Can the Dolphins still qualify for the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins playoff hopes: slim chances, tough road ahead.

The Miami Dolphins, 6-8 after a tough loss to the Houston Texans in week 15, find themselves almost on the brink of elimination from playoff contention. The week 15 loss has left them with a slim 3.7% chance to make the postseason, as per ESPN’s Football Power Index, and just 5% according to The New York Times simulator.

Dolphins Week 16 Rooting Guide:

— Must-Win: Dolphins over 49ers

— Root For:
Titans over Colts
Bengals over Browns
Steelers over Ravens pic.twitter.com/gq8cYHlkw7
— Dolphins Muse (@Dolphins_Muse) December 21, 2024

With just 3 games remaining, the Dolphins must win out every game. And not only win out, they must also hope for favorable outcomes across the AFC.

Miami Dolphins Current Playoff Landscape

According to playoff projections, even sweeping their remaining 3 games only raises their playoff odds to 37%. Here’s how the AFC wild-card standings look right now:

Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
Denver Broncos (9-6)
Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)

To equal their wins with either the Broncos or the Chargers, Miami must win out and hope one of these teams loses both their games. The Ravens clinched a playoff spot after their win over the Steelers yesterday. With only 2 spots left in the AFC, Miami would need multiple favorable outcomes.

Are the Dolphins Out of the Playoff Race?

Not yet. While slim, Miami’s path to the playoffs remains open. Their forthcoming schedule gives them (and their fans) some hope:

Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
Week 17: @ Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Week 18: @ New York Jets (4-10)

The 49ers, reeling from injuries, are Miami’s toughest challengers in their remaining schedule. With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason sidelined, Tyreek Hill and Co. could exploit weaknesses if they play a clean, efficient game. However, even winning these games on a streak doesn’t guarantee Miami a playoff berth.

What Needs to Happen for the Dolphins to Qualify?

The Dolphins’ playoff hopes hinge on a near-perfect storm of events. Winning their final three games would push them to 9-8, but they also need key losses from wild-card rivals. Here’s what Miami fans should root for:

Colts, Bengals losses: A clearer path emerges if Indianapolis and Cincinnati falter.
Chargers or Broncos lose their remaining games: Miami needs at least one of these teams to lose twice.

If Miami wins their remaining games, their playoff chances could rise to 37%, per The New York Times’ simulator. A tie at 9-8 with either the Chargers or the Broncos would favor Miami due to a superior divisional record.

Miami Dolphins Record 2024

The Miami Dolphins have a 6-8 win-loss record through week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season. For the Dolphins’ remaining schedule, they face teams with subpar records: the 49ers (6-8), Browns (3-11), and Jets (4-10). Winning out could bring their record to 9-8 and possibly secure the franchise’s fifth consecutive winning season.

Tua Tagovailoa and fresh talents like Patrick Paul and Chop Robinson have reasons to finish strong. For Tagovailoa, setting an NFL record for consecutive games with a 70% or higher completion rate is within reach, adding personal stakes to the team’s broader goals.

A 9-8 finish does not guarantee them a playoff spot, but they still have the chance to build momentum heading into 2025!

Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins Playoff Picture

Miami Dolphins Playoff Qualifications

Miami Dolphins playoff spot

Natasha Bose

I write about sports because, well, it brings in the big bucks! I’m not some lifelong analyst or stats guru, truth being told, you’ve probably never heard of me!—I just know how to research, write, and make things sound good. That’s the job!
Got into sports media the same way most people do: by (fortunate) accident. Started with SEO writing, took on a few sports gigs, and now here we are! I cover games, trades, player drama—whatever needs words.
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