Feb 22, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Alonzo Menifield (red gloves) fights Julius Walker (blue gloves) in the light heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

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Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

Sometimes the pressure to get that first UFC victory can drive fighters to do desperate things. Both Julius Walker and Rafael Cerqueira know exactly what that feels like. They entered the promotion as undefeated prospects with high hopes and plenty of hype. Now they sit with a combined 0-3 record and face the harsh reality that another loss might mean exit from the promotion. Walker came painfully close in his debut, dropping a split decision to Alonzo Menifield despite earning Fight of the Night honors. That showed he belonged, but moral victories don’t pay the bills.

Cerqueira’s story is different though. The 35 year old Brazilian got knocked out in the first round of both his UFC appearances, first by Ibo Aslan and then by Modestas Bukauskas. Those brutal setbacks raised questions about whether he can handle the step up in competition. When two desperate fighters meet in the light heavyweight division, violence usually follows. This weekend at UFC Vegas 109, one of these men will finally taste victory while the other might be looking for work elsewhere.

Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira Preview

Walker stands 6’4″ with a 78 inch reach. He lands 5.73 significant strikes per minute with solid 50% accuracy, but he also absorbs a whopping 5.80 strikes per minute with just 40% strike defense. Walker shows perfect takedown defense at 100%, though his offensive wrestling remains limited with just 1.00 attempt per fight and 11% accuracy.

Cerqueira stands at 6’3″ with a 76 inch reach. He lands just 3.28 strikes per minute with 43% accuracy while absorbing an alarming 14.43 strikes per minute. That defensive stat explains why he’s been knocked out so quickly in the UFC. His wrestling stats are blank across the board as of yet. Given both fighters’ striking backgrounds, this fight will likely stay standing until someone hits the canvas unconscious.

Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira MMA Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have spoken on this contest. According to Fanduel, Julius Walker is a massive favorite at -700. Meanwhile Raffael Cerqueira sits as a significant underdog at +500. The market clearly sees this as a mismatch, which makes sense given their contrasting UFC performances so far.

The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is way higher and the odds (-1100) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +620.

Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira Prediction And Picks

This matchup comes down to whether Cerqueira can survive Walker’s early assault and find a way to land something significant. Walker’s game plan should be straightforward; pressure from the opening bell, throw heavy volume, and trust that his chin can handle whatever comes back.

Cerqueira needs something close to perfection to win this fight. His path to victory requires landing a perfect shot early before Walker can establish his rhythm. The Brazilian’s finishing power is real, he’s stopped 10 of his 11 career wins. But he needs to survive long enough to showcase it. His defensive statistics suggest that’s unlikely against someone who throws as much volume as Walker does.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Julius Walker to win the fight via KO/TKO.

(Image Credit: Steven Bisig – Imagn Images)

Julius Walker

Raffael Cerqueira

UFC vegas 109

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!