Jun 2, 2023; Paris,France; Elise Mertens (BEL) shakes hands at the net with Jessica Pegula (USA) after their match on day six at Stade Roland-Garros.

tennis-predictions

Jessica Pegula vs. Elise Mertens Head to Head Record, Prediction and Betting Odds for WTA Italian Open 2025 Round-3

Who will advance to the Round of 16?

Jun 2, 2023; Paris,France; Elise Mertens (BEL) shakes hands at the net with Jessica Pegula (USA) after their match on day six at Stade Roland-Garros.

Two titans of the WTA circuit will come face to face in the 2025 Italian Open Round of 32, as Jessica Pegula faces Elise Mertens on Saturday. Pegula is the No. 3 seed this week, but is being closely followed by Coco Gauff. The American beat compatriot Ashlyn Krueger 6-4 6-2 in the second round. In comparison, Mertens came through a tough three set battle against Suzan Lamens on Thursday.

Pegula and Mertens have similar styles of play – they enjoy taking charge of rallies right from the serve – and prefer baseline exchanges. The 2024 US Open finalist has a record of 8-2 on clay ahead of this WTA match, while Mertens comes into this key contest with an inferior 5-3 ratio.

The Belgian reached the women’s doubles final in Madrid last week, and also won the Singapore Open singles title earlier this year. Pegula’s two trophies in 2025 came at home – Austin and Charleston. She walks into this Round-3 tussle as the favourite in terms of form and ranking.

Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens Head to Head Record

Elise Mertens leads the head to head against Jessica Pegula by 3-1. Saturday’s prime-time match will be the fifth meeting between these two players, and the second this year.

Mertens and Pegula have faced one another once previously on clay – at the 2023 Roland Garros Championships. It was Mertens who came out on top in straight sets. While the 29-year-old won the first three matches in this duel, Pegula won the most recent Round-2 match-up at the 2025 Australian Open.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Australian Open	Round of 64	Jessica Pegula	6-4 6-2
2023 Roland Garros	Round of 32	Elise Mertens	6-1 6-3
2021 Dubai	Quarterfinal	Elise Mertens	5-7 7-5 6-0
2020 New York	Quarterfinal	Elise Mertens	6-1 6-3

Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens Career Comparison

Jessica Pegula	Category	Elise Mertens
0	Grand Slams	0
8	WTA Singles Titles	9
7	WTA Doubles Titles	21
3	WTA-1000 Titles	0
R2 (Paris 2024)	Olympics Best Performance	R1 (Tokyo 2020)
No. 4	Current World Ranking	No. 24

Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens Italian Open 2025 Prediction

All business 💼@JPegula kicks off her campaign in Rome with a win over Krueger 6-4, 6-2 and will face Mertens next. #IBI25 pic.twitter.com/OqN2TvsfNr
— wta (@WTA) May 8, 2025

Unlike what many would think, we predict an upset in this Round of 32 battle at Foro Italico. Mertens is a veteran clay courter, and managed to give World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka a scare in Madrid last week. With both players attempting constant changes of direction to upset the rhythm of their opposition, a lot will come down to execution. Featuring in doubles action on Friday, the Belgian could find the winning solution vs. Pegula.

Prediction: Elise Mertens in three sets.

Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens Italian Open 2025 Betting Odds

Jessica Pegula Win: -333

Elise Mertens Win: +250

(According to BetMGM)

Aryna Sabalenka

Betting

Elise Mertens

Italian Open

Jessica Pegula

Rome Masters

Tennis

US Open

WTA

WTA 1000

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.