Who will advance to the Round of 16?
Two titans of the WTA circuit will come face to face in the 2025 Italian Open Round of 32, as Jessica Pegula faces Elise Mertens on Saturday. Pegula is the No. 3 seed this week, but is being closely followed by Coco Gauff. The American beat compatriot Ashlyn Krueger 6-4 6-2 in the second round. In comparison, Mertens came through a tough three set battle against Suzan Lamens on Thursday.
Pegula and Mertens have similar styles of play – they enjoy taking charge of rallies right from the serve – and prefer baseline exchanges. The 2024 US Open finalist has a record of 8-2 on clay ahead of this WTA match, while Mertens comes into this key contest with an inferior 5-3 ratio.
The Belgian reached the women’s doubles final in Madrid last week, and also won the Singapore Open singles title earlier this year. Pegula’s two trophies in 2025 came at home – Austin and Charleston. She walks into this Round-3 tussle as the favourite in terms of form and ranking.
Elise Mertens leads the head to head against Jessica Pegula by 3-1. Saturday’s prime-time match will be the fifth meeting between these two players, and the second this year.
Mertens and Pegula have faced one another once previously on clay – at the 2023 Roland Garros Championships. It was Mertens who came out on top in straight sets. While the 29-year-old won the first three matches in this duel, Pegula won the most recent Round-2 match-up at the 2025 Australian Open.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Australian Open | Round of 64 | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023 Roland Garros | Round of 32 | Elise Mertens | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2021 Dubai | Quarterfinal | Elise Mertens | 5-7 7-5 6-0 |
| 2020 New York | Quarterfinal | Elise Mertens | 6-1 6-3 |
| Jessica Pegula | Category | Elise Mertens |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 8 | WTA Singles Titles | 9 |
| 7 | WTA Doubles Titles | 21 |
| 3 | WTA-1000 Titles | 0 |
| R2 (Paris 2024) | Olympics Best Performance | R1 (Tokyo 2020) |
| No. 4 | Current World Ranking | No. 24 |
Unlike what many would think, we predict an upset in this Round of 32 battle at Foro Italico. Mertens is a veteran clay courter, and managed to give World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka a scare in Madrid last week. With both players attempting constant changes of direction to upset the rhythm of their opposition, a lot will come down to execution. Featuring in doubles action on Friday, the Belgian could find the winning solution vs. Pegula.
Prediction: Elise Mertens in three sets.
Jessica Pegula Win: -333
Elise Mertens Win: +250
(According to BetMGM)
