Stearns Takes on Keys at the Italian Open Clash
The fifth-seeded Madison Keys will square off against fellow American Peyton Stearns this Saturday in the third round of the Italian Open. Keys entered with a first-round bye and held off Varvara Gracheva in straight sets, surviving a tight tiebreak in the opener. Stearns, meanwhile, breezed through her early rounds, dispatching wild card Nuria Brancaccio and Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets to reach this stage.
But despite her clean run so far, Stearns has struggled to find consistency this season, failing to go beyond the round of 16 in any singles event. Her results have hinted at potential, but the rhythm and resilience to back it up have been missing.
Keys, on the other hand, has been on a tear. After a quarterfinal in Auckland, she stormed to back-to-back titles in Adelaide and the Australian Open, toppling some of the tour’s biggest names, including Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, and Elena Rybakina.
Keys followed that up with a semifinal at Indian Wells and a strong quarterfinal showing in Madrid, where she pushed Swiatek to three sets. Even with early exits in Miami and Charleston, her form this season is undeniable and she enters this matchup as the clear favorite.
Peyton Stearns leads the head-to-head against Madison Keys 1–0, but their lone meeting came under unusual circumstances. At the 2024 Toronto Open, Keys took the opening set and was building momentum in the decider when a thigh injury forced her to retire, handing Stearns the win.
Now, as they gear up for a rematch at the Italian Open, fans can look forward to what feels like their true first clash, assuming both remain healthy from start to finish.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 | Toronto Open | Second Round | Peyton Stearns | 3–6, 7–5, 3–0 ret. |
| Madison Keys | Category | Peyton Stearns |
| 6 | Ranking | 42 |
| 407-224 | Career W-L | 170-117 |
| 23-5 | YTD W-L | 11-11 |
| 10 | Career Titles | 1 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Keys holds the edge with her strong form and consistency this season, but as with many matches, it will always be a possibility that Keys could be holding the “key” for Stearns’ momentum this season, quite ironic.
Prediction: Madison Keys in straight sets.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Madison Keys: 21/50
Peyton Stearns: 37/20
