Sep 8, 2024; Flushing, NY, USA; Jannik Sinner (ITA) celebrates with the trophy after defeating Taylor Fritz (USA) in the men’s singles final of the 2024 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

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Jannik Sinner Draw Analysis and Odds – What Are Sinner’s Odds to Win the US Open 2025?

The Italian is the defending champion in New York.

He is the World No. 1; he is the reigning champion; he is the unassailable favourite. Jannik Sinner is all set to take the 2025 US Open by storm yet again. With two out of three Grand Slam victories so far this year, the 24-year-old Italian is on a run that many only fathom in their wildest dreams. Looking to become just the seventh man in the Open Era to win three majors in the same season, the history-chasing top seed will have his work cut out in New York City.

At the 2024 US Open, Sinner made light work of current World No. 4 Taylor Fritz to win his first trophy at the competition. Provided the Italian can retain his crown, he will rue the missed championship point conversions in the 2025 Roland Garros final. Despite seeing his 26-match winning streak on hard courts slip away at the recently concluded Cincinnati Masters, Sinner is yet to lose at a hard court major since his fighting defeat vs Alexander Zverev at USO ‘23.

How does Jannik Sinner’s path to the 2025 US Open title look? Moreover, what are his odds of recapturing his prized possession? Let’s take a look:

Jannik Sinner Draw Analysis

Jannik Sinner’s possible path to defending his U.S. Open title:

R1 – Kopriva

R2 – Popyrin / Ruusuvuori

R3 – Shapovalov / Fucsovics / Bu

R4 – Bublik / Paul

QF – Musetti / Draper / Cobolli

SF – Zverev / Rublev / de Minaur / Khachanov

F – Alcaraz / Djokovic / Shelton /… pic.twitter.com/w7aqSXOsHS
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 21, 2025

The top seed kicks things off against 28-year-old Czech star Vit Kopriva. He is currently ranked No. 87 in the world, and has a solitary win over Top-10 players in his career. In Round-2, Sinner may run into the Aussie hurdle that took out Novak Djokovic last year – Alexei Popyrin. The 26-year-old giant killer also has an advantageous 1-0 head-to-head record against Sinner. While 27th seed Denis Shapovalov is the Round of 32 opponent for the four-time Grand Slam champion on paper, things start to get tricky in the second week.

Jannik Sinner’s possible opposition in the Round of 16 is one out of Tommy Paul, Marin Cilic or Alexander Bublik. While the 24-year-old has dominant records against the first two, Bublik is one of only two men who have wins against Sinner in 2025. Following this, a possible marathon night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium against Jack Draper or Lorenzo Musetti awaits the Italian in the quarterfinal stage.

Although No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev has been drawn in the same half as Sinner, he is one of numerous potential semifinal opponents for the top seed. The other contenders include Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Let’s assume the reigning trophy-holder reaches yet another summit clash – he will need to scale the peak by beating one out of Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev to go back-to-back at Flushing Meadows.

Jannik Sinner Odds to Win the US Open 2025

Jannik Sinner arrives on Arthur Ashe for his practice session at the US Open.

Great to see him back with a smile on his face. 🦊❤️

pic.twitter.com/rwbXPuSnDy
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 21, 2025

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is the favourite to win the men’s singles title in the outright market. According to BetMGM’s pre-tournament predictions, Sinner beats Alcaraz and Djokovic as the best bet. The money line also picks the Italian as the favourite to make it consecutive successes on American soil. Here are Jannik Sinner’s odds to capture the ultimate crown:

Jannik Sinner Odds to Win the Title: 23/20

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

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Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.