Get to know the betting odds, precidtions and picks for the upcoming Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree at UFC Baku!
The UFC is taking its octagon halfway around the world this weekend. UFC Baku takes place on June 21, 2025, at the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. This light heavyweight clash brings together Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree. These two fighters are trying to bounce back from recent setbacks, each hoping to reignite their title aspirations in an exotic location.
Both men have tasted championship-level competition recently, though neither walked away with their hands raised. Hill lost his chance to win his belt back to Alex Pereira in a brutal first-round knockout, then suffered another devastating loss to Jiri Prochazka. Rountree gave Pereira all he could handle in a title fight before being stopped in the fourth round. Now they meet in a crossroads bout that could determine who stays relevant in the division’s upper tier.
This matchup screams striking battle from the opening bell. Neither Hill nor Rountree has ever attempted a takedown in the UFC, making this essentially a kickboxing match inside the octagon. Hill brings a significant reach advantage of three inches, which could prove crucial given his preference for operating at distance. The former champion has been one of the most active strikers in the division, landing an impressive 7.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 4.02. Those numbers put him among the elite in terms of output and defense.
Rountree presents a different puzzle entirely. His striking volume sits well below average at 3.73 significant strikes per minute, but what he lacks in quantity he makes up for in power. Every shot carries knockout potential, and his recent performance against Pereira showed he can hang with the very best when the moment calls for it. However, his defensive metrics raise some concerns, as he absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute, creating a negative striking differential that typically spells trouble.
The betting market reflects the close nature of this matchup. According to BetMGM, Jamahal Hill opened as a slight underdog around +100. Meanwhile Khalil Rountree sits as a modest favorite at -120. These odds suggest the bookmakers see this as essentially a coin flip, with Rountree getting slight respect for his recent title fight performance and perceived durability advantage.
The fight is heavily favored to not see the judges scorecard at around -475. A decision outcome for this fight while a decision outcome sits at +300. This pricing reflects both fighters’ finishing ability and the general expectation that one will eventually find the other’s chin.
This fight comes down to Hill’s superior volume and technical striking against Rountree’s power and proven toughness. Hill should be able to establish his jab early and use his reach advantage to score consistently from the outside. His ability to land 7+ significant strikes per minute suggests he can build leads on the scorecards while avoiding Rountree’s biggest shots.
However, Rountree only needs one clean connection to change everything. His power is legitimate, and Hill’s recent knockout losses prove he can be hurt by elite strikers. Moreover, Hill has a tendency to overextend (as is evident from his fight against Jiri Prochazka). The question becomes whether Hill can maintain his technical approach for 25 minutes without getting caught by something big.
The most likely scenario sees Hill building an early lead through superior output and technique. But as the fight progresses and fatigue sets in, his defensive discipline might slip just enough for Rountree to land something decisive. This creates an interesting dynamic where Hill is probably winning most minutes of the fight, but Rountree always has that equalizer in his back pocket. Moreover, his toughness and heart to take punishment and still keep moving forward is what can sway this fight in his favor.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Khalil Rountree to win the fight via KO/TKO in the later rounds.
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images)
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