Mar 13, 2023; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Tommy Paul (USA) pumps his fist after a point as he defeated Hubert Hurkacz (POL) in his fourth round match during the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

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Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul Head to Head Record, Preview, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Italian Open 2025 Quarterfinal

Fourth Meeting Between the Two Stars

Two Grand Slam semifinalists come face-to-face at the 2025 Internazionali BNL d’Italia as Hubert Hurkacz takes on Tommy Paul for a spot in the final four. While the Polish giant came through a thrilling Round of 16 match against Miami Open winner Mensik, Paul defeated de Minaur in convincing fashion. Who will reach the semifinals at the Italian capital?

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Preview

Hubert Hurkacz has amassed an 8-5 record this year – he is attempting a steady rise to the supremely high level he once displayed. The 28-year-old is 7-3 on clay over the past year. His best result in 2025 is a semifinal finish in Rotterdam, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. Hurkacz defeated Pedro Martinez, Marcos Giron and Jakub Mensik en route to the last eight stage.

With a 76.7% service game win percentage on clay, Tommy Paul has been showing rapid growth on the surface that many considered to be his weakest. He has earned 11 wins and 5 losses in five previous tournaments on the red dirt over the past year. Paul has a strong baseline game and started the year by reaching a couple of semifinals which sandwiched a quarterfinal run at the Australian Open. The American has taken out two seeds in Rome thus far – Tomas Machac and Alex de Minaur.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Head to Head Record

Tommy Paul has an advantageous 2-1 head to head record against Hubert Hurkacz. It is a rivalry that originated in 2021 at the Paris Masters.

Hurkacz, who has a solid record at indoor events, produced a polished performance to beat Paul in straight sets during their first ever meeting. However, it was the 2023 Australian Open semifinalist who turned the tide and took control of this duel. He won the next two matches against Hurkacz – both at Masters events and both in three sets. Coincidentally, the most recent face-off between them happened at this very tournament.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024 Rome	Quarterfinal	Tommy Paul	7-5 3-6 6-3
2023 Indian Wells	Round of 32	Tommy Paul	4-6 6-2 6-4
2021 Paris Masters	Round of 32	Hubert Hurkacz	7-5 7-6(4)

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Career Comparison

Hubert Hurkacz	Category	Tommy Paul
0	Grand Slams	0
8	ATP Singles Titles	4
4	ATP Doubles Titles	0
2	Masters-1000 Titles	0
1	ATP-500 Titles	1
R2 (Tokyo 2020)	Olympics Best Performance	QF (Paris 2024)
No. 31	Current World Ranking	No. 12

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul Prediction for Italian Open 2025

It is safe to say that neither of the two stars are playing on their favourite surface in Rome. There is some amount of data to predict a winner between Hurkacz and Paul on slow clay courts. Considering it is a day game, the American’s flat shot making ability could play an important role in leaving Hurkacz on the back foot. We predict Paul to edge out his 6’5” counterpart in a narrow win.

Prediction: Tommy Paul in three sets.

❌ Backhands only
🙃 Playing wrong-handed
🌋 The back-court is lava

Emma Navarro & Tommy Paul take on the chaotic fun that is Do or Dice in Rome! @InteBNLdItalia pic.twitter.com/BaepvWlyu7
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 14, 2025

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Tommy Paul Italian Open 2025 Betting Odds

Hubert Hurkacz Win: +175

Tommy Paul Win: -225

(According to Dimers)

Alex de Minaur

ATP

ATP Masters 1000

Betting

Carlos Alcaraz

Hubert Hurkacz

Italian Open

Jakub Mensik

Rome Masters

Tennis

Tommy Paul

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.