Winner to face Musetti or Nakashima in Round of 16.
The champion here from two years ago, Daniil Medvedev resumes his bid for a second title in Rome at the 2025 Italian Open. He is set to face big serving Australian Alexei Popyrin in the Round of 32 on Sunday. The two players have faced each other on multiple occasions, with the Russian having the edge in the rivalry so far.
Contrary to his somewhat bitter relationship with the red dirt over the years, the Internazionali d’Italia has been a happy hunting ground for Medvedev. He beat Holger Rune to win the trophy in 2023, before getting knocked out vs Tommy Paul in the Round of 16 last year. The Russian enters this match with a 70% service game win percentage on clay, alongside a 51.6% break point conversion rate. He is yet to experience a championship run in 2025.
Closing in on 2,000 aces in his career, Alexei Popyrin has a massive weapon at his disposal. The Australian has won over 75% points on first serve, and got broken only once in his Round-2 win over Carlos Taberner. The No. 24 seed has gone winless in his last two tournaments – the Madrid Open and the ATP Challenger Open Aix Provence.
3-1 is the head to head between Daniil Medvedev and Alexei Popyrin – in favour of the Russian. However, he lost the most recent encounter in 2024.
The world was made to stand up and take notice when a 19-year-old Popyrin grabbed the first set against Medvedev in their first ever meeting at Wimbledon in 2019. While the 2021 US Open champion roared back to win the match, it was a sign of promise and potential for the young gun. Despite Medvedev winning the next two matches in this rivalry, Popyrin bounced back with a thrilling victory at the 2024 Paris Masters.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 Paris Masters | Round of 32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 2-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021 Miami Masters | Round of 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-4 |
| 2020 Australian Open | Round of 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2019 Wimbledon | Round of 64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4 6-4 |
| Daniil Medvedev | Category | Alexei Popyrin |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 20 | ATP Singles Titles | 3 |
| 0 | ATP Doubles Titles | 1 |
| 6 | Masters-1000 Titles | 1 |
| 4 | ATP-500 Titles | 0 |
| QF (Tokyo 2020) | Olympics Best Performance | R3 (Paris 2024 |
| No. 11 | Current World Ranking | No. 25 |
The relatively slow conditions play into the hands of Medvedev at Foro Italico. The 24th seed will need to execute a flawless set of net approaches to upset the rhythm of the wily Russian. Owing to the fact that Popyrin enjoys hitting forehands and Medvedev has one of the best backhands on tour, expect both players to go cross-court from their stronger wing and down the line from their weaker side on Sunday.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev in three sets.
Using the money line to place bets on this match-up, it seems like Medvedev is emerging as a strong favourite with over 70% chance to win. However, neither player has favourable odds to win the tournament.
Daniil Medvedev Win: -275
Alexei Popyrin Win: +210
(According to BetMGM)
