Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Bryce Mitchell during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

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Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcomimg Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov fight at UFC Abu Dhabi!

Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Bryce Mitchell during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Sometimes a fighter needs a fresh start, and Bryce Mitchell’s drop to bantamweight represents exactly that. After three brutal losses at featherweight exposed his physical limitations against elite competition, ‘Thug Nasty’ decided to shed some pounds and test the waters at 135 pounds. His quirky personality and conspiracy theories made him a notorious figure, but his recent struggles against killers like Ilia Topuria and Josh Emmett left many wondering if his ceiling was lower than initially thought.

Said Nurmagomedov arrives as the perfect litmus test for Mitchell’s UFC bantamweight experiment. The Russian fighter carries no relation to the famous Khabib clan, but he’s carved out his own respectable career with solid wins and a dangerous guillotine choke that has claimed multiple victims. This matchup will answer crucial questions about whether Mitchell’s problems stemmed from being undersized or simply facing superior opposition.

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Preview

Bryce Mitchell brings a 17-4 record and his signature southpaw stance to this bantamweight debut. Standing 5’10” with a 70 inch reach, the Arkansas native has built his reputation on elite grappling skills and relentless pressure. His striking statistics tell the story of a measured approach, just 2.44 significant strikes landed per minute but with impressive 59% accuracy. More importantly, Mitchell absorbs only 1.64 strikes per minute thanks to excellent defensive positioning and his ability to control where fights take place.

Mitchell’s wrestling pedigree shines through his 3.27 takedown average per fight with 36% accuracy. The concerning stat is his 33% takedown defense, which suggests he can be taken down when opponents have the wrestling skills to match his own.

Said Nurmagomedov enters with an 18-4 record and a reputation as one of bantamweight’s most dangerous submission threats. The Russian stands 5’8″ with a 70 inch reach, giving both men identical wingspan. Nurmagomedov’s striking numbers show solid fundamentals: 3.38 strikes landed per minute with 47% accuracy while absorbing 2.25 strikes per minute. His 56% striking defense is respectable but not exceptional.

Where Nurmagomedov truly excels is in his opportunistic grappling. Three of his last four wins came via guillotine choke, and his 1.2 submission attempts per fight demonstrate his constant hunting for necks. His wrestling stats are less impressive with just 1.01 takedowns per fight at 15% accuracy, but his 62% takedown defense suggests he can stay upright when needed.

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov MMA Betting Odds

The Oddsmakers have spoken on this fight. According to Fanduel, Bryce Mitchell is a slight -142 favorite. Meanwhile, Said Nurmagomedov sits at +120. These near odds reflect the genuine uncertainty surrounding Mitchell’s bantamweight transition.

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The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is slightly higher and the odds (-122) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -104.

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Predictions And Picks

This fight hinges on Mitchell’s ability to implement his grinding game plan without falling into Nurmagomedov’s submission traps. The Russian’s guillotine has claimed multiple victims who made the mistake of shooting sloppy takedowns, and Mitchell’s aggressive wrestling style could play right into those hands.

However, Mitchell’s superior overall grappling and chain wrestling should eventually break down Nurmagomedov’s resistance. The key is avoiding those early scrambles. Mitchell’s experience against higher caliber competition gives him an edge in the later rounds when Nurmagomedov historically begins to fade.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Bryce Mitchell to win via unanimous decision.

Bryce Mitchell

Said Nurmagomedov

UFC Abu Dhabi

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!