Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Head-to-Head, Prediction, and Betting Odds for ATP National Bank Open 2025 Round of 16

Steady Rublev Meets Surging Fokina: Who Blinks First in Toronto?

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Sixth seed Andrey Rublev will face 20th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the fourth round of the National Bank Open in Toronto. Both players received first-round byes and have since looked sharp. Rublev took out Hugo Gaston in straight sets and rallied past Lorenzo Sonego, while Fokina cruised past Corentin Moutet and 12th seed Jakub Mensik without dropping a set.

Rublev beats Lorenzo Sonego 5-7 6-4 6-3

Strong comeback from Andrey… he got better & better as the match went on.

He reaches the Round of 16 in Toronto for the 2nd time.

✅25th win of 2025

Let’s see if he can build some momentum this week.

💚 pic.twitter.com/uY8lky8pRX
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 1, 2025

Rublev opened with a title in Doha, defeating Jack Draper in a tight final. He also made a semifinal run in Open Occitanie and reached the quarters in Rotterdam. More recently, he was a finalist in Hamburg and a semifinalist in Los Cabos. Statistically, he remains a threat with 307 aces, 76% first-serve points won, and a 35% break point conversion across 301 opportunities.

Fokina, meanwhile, has had a more unpredictable year but has made deep runs, including finals in Delray Beach, Acapulco, and Washington. In the latter, he was stopped by Alex de Minaur in three sets. He also reached the semifinals in Monte Carlo and Eastbourne. Though still chasing his first title of 2025, he’s made his presence felt with a break point conversion rate of 43% from 404 opportunities, alongside 160 aces and 67% first-serve success.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 2025 record vs. Top 20 players

· 9 – 7 overall
· 5 – 3 on hard courts pic.twitter.com/OmOIqq68JA
— Mario Boccardi (@boccardi_marioo) August 1, 2025

Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Head-to-Head Record

Andrey Rublev owns a commanding 5-1 record over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in their head-to-head rivalry. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2020, and since then, Rublev has stamped his authority across multiple surfaces, from Dubai and Rome in 2023 to Madrid and Beijing in 2024.

The Russian basically took 11 of their 15 sets played. But earlier this season in Barcelona, Fokina flipped the narrative, securing a straight-sets victory. His first ever in five years over Rublev.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Barcelona	Round of 16	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	7-5, 6-4
2024	Beijing	Round of 16	Andrey Rublev	6-4, 7-5
2024	Madrid	Round of 32	Andrey Rublev	7-6(10), 6-4
2023	Rome	Round of 32	Andrey Rublev	7-6(8), 6-3
2023	Dubai	Round of 16	Andrey Rublev	1-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(3)
2020	Roland Garros	Round of 64	Andrey Rublev	7-5, 6-1, 3-6, 6-1

Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Comparison

Andrey Rublev	Category	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
11	Current Ranking	19
358-201	Career W-L	146-137
23-17	YTD W-L	32-18
17	Career Titles	0
0	Grand Slams	0
1	YTD Titles	0

Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Fokina’s form has been peaking at just the right time, with a cleaner path to the fourth round and a recent final in Washington. But Rublev has a strong H2H advantage, experience and 17 to none titles.

Rublev is revving up for another big run at the #NBO 🌬️

Andrey is off to the Round of 16 🥳@nationalbank pic.twitter.com/LGCvF5XKrq
— National Bank Open (@NBOtoronto) August 1, 2025

Prediction: Andrey Rublev in straight sets

Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP National Bank Open 2025 Betting Odds

With odds slightly favoring Fokina at 10/13 over Rublev at evens, the bookmakers see momentum on the Spaniard’s side.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Andrey Rublev: Evens

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 10/13

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 2.5: 16/25

Total Sets Over 2.5: 6/5

Total Games Under 21.5: 31/20

Total Games Over 21.5: 12/25

Rublev to win: Set 1 – Evens

Fokina to win: Set 1 – 4/5

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Andrey Rublev

National Bank Open 2025

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.