Dec 7, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) enters the arena before the fight against Kai Asakura (blues gloves) at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds For UFC 317

Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France title fight at UFC 317!

The flyweight division has probably been the UFC’s most overlooked weight class. While heavyweights throw bombs and lightweights steal headlines, the smaller guys at 125 pounds have been quietly putting on some of the most technical and exciting fights in the sport. It’s a shame really, because these smaller fighters often display the most complete skill sets and the highest pace of action. They just don’t get the respect they deserve from casual fans who seem to think bigger always means better.

Alexandre Pantoja has been doing his best to change that perception since becoming champion. The Brazilian has been systematically cleaning out a division that desperately needed a dominant champion. ‘The Cannibal’ sits atop the division with three successful title defenses under his belt, and he’s not showing any signs of slowing down. This Saturday at UFC 317, he faces Kai Kara-France, a dangerous striker from New Zealand who brings serious knockout power to the T-Mobile Arena.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Preview

The numbers tell an interesting story about this matchup. Pantoja comes into this fight with a record of 29-5. At 35 years old, he’s reaching the twilight of his career, but his recent performances suggest he’s still operating at peak level. His striking stats are solid but not spectacular. He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy. What makes Pantoja special is his well-rounded approach to fighting. He averages 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 47% success rate, and his submission game is where he really shines with 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Kara-France presents a completely different challenge with his 25-11 record. The 32-year-old New Zealander has built his reputation on his striking power and speed. He actually lands more strikes per minute than the champion at 4.56, though his accuracy is lower at 39%. Kara-France’s takedown defense sits at an impressive 88%, which could be crucial against Pantoja’s grappling-heavy approach. The Kiwi fighter has never attempted a submission in the UFC, which shows just how much he relies on his hands to finish fights.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have made their feelings clear about this title fight. According to BetMGM, Alexandre Pantoja opens as a significant favorite at -280. Meanwhile Kai Kara-France sits at +220 as the underdog. These odds reflect the champion’s recent dominance and his ability to find finishes against elite competition.

The bookmakers clearly believe that Pantoja’s well-rounded skill set and championship experience give him a substantial advantage over the challenger.Early money seemed to favor Pantoja even more heavily, but some sharp action has come in on Kara-France as well.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France Predictions And Picks

This fight comes down to one simple question: Can Kara-France keep it standing long enough to land something big? His striking volume and accuracy give him a real chance to hurt Pantoja on the feet, but the champion’s takedown ability and submission skills present a constant threat. Pantoja has shown time and again that he can drag fights to the ground and find necks or limbs to attack.

The key factor will be Kara-France’s takedown defense. His 88% success rate looks impressive on paper, but he hasn’t faced a grappler quite like Pantoja. The champion is patient and methodical in his approach, wearing down opponents with constant pressure before finding his opening. Kara-France’s best chance comes in the early rounds when he’s fresh and can use his speed and power to maximum effect.

If we are betting on the fight, we are going with Alexandre Pantoja to win the fight via unanimous decision.

(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie – Imagn Images)

Alexandre Pantoja

Kai Kara-France

UFC 317

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!