Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul Head-to-Head and Prediction for ATP Italian Open 2025 Round of 16

De Minaur vs. Paul: A Thrilling Quarterfinal Showdown at Rome Last 16

Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Alex de Minaur is set to face Tommy Paul in a much-anticipated fourth-round clash at the Italian Open. As the No. 7 and No. 11 seeds, both players received byes in the opening round. De Minaur has looked sharp so far, cruising past wild card Luca Nardi and lucky loser Hugo Dellien in straight sets to reach the last 16.

Paul, meanwhile, dispatched Roberto Bautista Agut before battling through a gritty three-setter against Tomas Machac, clinching the win with a second-set tiebreak. Now, with momentum on the line and a spot in the quarterfinals at stake, the stage is set for a compelling showdown between two of the tour’s more consistent competitors.

Consistent 🧱@alexdeminaur books his spot in the last sixteen in Rome after a 6-4 6-4 win vs Dellien 🤝#IBI25 pic.twitter.com/meoYaGmoWb
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 12, 2025

Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul Preview

Ranked No. 8 in the world, Alex de Minaur opened with a quarterfinal run at the Australian Open, followed by a runner-up finish in Rotterdam to Carlos Alcaraz. He then reached the quarterfinals in Qatar, narrowly losing to Andrey Rublev in three sets. De Minaur’s stats have also been impressive this season. Ahead of the Italian Open, he had fired 104 aces, won 75% of his first-serve points, and saved 60% of the 140 break points he faced.

Though he didn’t advance past the Round of 16 in Dubai, Indian Wells, or Miami, he rediscovered form with a semifinal in Monte Carlo and a quarterfinal in Barcelona. He also converted 49% of his 230 break point opportunities YTD, a standout mark on tour. Most recently, he fell to Lorenzo Musetti in the Madrid Round of 16.

American brilliance 💫

🇺🇸 Tommy Paul joins Roddick as the only American men to reach the Rome R16 in back-to-back years in this century.#IBI25 pic.twitter.com/K5j0yfj3kP
— Internazionali BNL d'Italia (@InteBNLdItalia) May 12, 2025

Tommy Paul opened the season strong with back-to-back deep runs. He reached the semifinals in Adelaide, falling to Felix Auger-Aliassime in three sets. That was followed with a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open, being stopped by world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in four sets. Another semifinal came in Dallas, but he didn’t progress past the Round of 16 again until Miami.

Then came Houston, where he turned it up again with a gritty semifinal run, eventually losing to Jenson Brooksby in a three-set battle featuring tiebreaks in the first and third sets. Statistically, Paul has impressed as well, firing 157 aces, winning 73% of his first-serve points, and converting 44% of 211 break point chances.

Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul Head-to-Head Record

Alex de Minaur leads the head-to-head against Tommy Paul 5-0, a record that underscores his dominance in this matchup. But despite the lopsided scoreline, Paul has never made it easy. The two met three times in 2022, beginning at Indian Wells, where de Minaur won in straight sets, including a tight first-set tiebreak. Their next clash in Rome saw the Aussie breeze past Paul, but their third encounter in the Eastbourne quarterfinals was a gritty, hard-fought three-set battle.

In 2023, they faced off twice more, in Acapulco and Los Cabos, with both matches again going the distance. Yet each time, de Minaur came out on top. Now, as they prepare for a high-stakes quarterfinal at the Italian Open, the question is whether de Minaur will extend his perfect record or if Paul can finally flip the script and earn a long-awaited win on clay.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2023	Los Cabos	Quarterfinal	Alex de Minaur	6–4, 3–6, 6–3
2023	Acapulco	Final	Alex de Minaur	3–6, 6–4, 6–1
2022	Eastbourne	Quarterfinal	Alex de Minaur	6–2, 4–6, 6–4
2022	Rome	Round of 32	Alex de Minaur	7–5, 6–4
2022	Indian Wells	Round of 32	Alex de Minaur	7–6, 6–4

Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul Comparison

Alex de Minaur	Category	Tommy Paul
8	Ranking	12
273-164	Career W-L	193-132
24-9	YTD W-L	17-7
9	Career Titles	4
0	Grand Slams	0
0	YTD Titles	0

Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul Prediction

De Minaur enters as the slight favorite, backed by his consistent results, strong baseline game, and spotless head-to-head record against Paul. However, Paul’s aggressive style, solid serve, and recent resurgence make him a serious threat. If he can maintain his level under pressure and capitalize on short balls, he has the tools to trouble the Aussie.

Tommy Paul will take on Alex De Minaur in the Rome Round of 16

This is not your average 5-0 H2H, most of these have been close and all gone Alex's way. This one I'd also expect to be very close, but hard to pick against De Minaur right now except against a couple opponets. pic.twitter.com/aGWuBW0KZk
— Tennis Updates (@TennisUpdates25) May 12, 2025

Prediction: Alex de Minaur in straight sets