Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Head to Head, Preview, Prediction and Betting Odds for 2025 Wimbledon First Round

Alex de Minaur is more composed and more experienced player on grass compared to his Spanish rival.

Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

11th-seeded Australian ace Alex de Minaur will be in action on Court 18 for the first round of the Wimbledon championship against Roberto Carballes Baena of Spain. Minaur had a quarterfinal run in 2024 and the Aussie tennis star would look to make a deep run in the Wimbledon this year. On the other hand, the Spaniard will enter the fixture to change the odds against top-15 player.

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Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Preview

Alex de Minaur is coming off a surprising defeats in past two events where had an early advantage. The Australian ace dropped the match against Bublik at Roland Garros after having a two-set lead. He arrived at Queen’s Club to start preparation for grass-court and suffered a loss to eventual finalist, Lehecka in opening round.

Alex de Minaur returns from some much needed time off and has reset ready to tackle the second half of the year 💪

↳ Wimbledon. de Minaur [11] v Carballes Baena, tonight from 8pm AEST. Every Match. Live & On-Demand. Centre Court in 4K.#StanSportAU #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/j9wxgNuuWi
— Stan Sport (@StanSportAU) July 1, 2025

The early exit on the Persian clay pushed him out of the top 10. Meanwhile, Minaur has an impressive record on grass court with 50 wins and two ATP titles. The 26-year-old reached the quarterfinals in 2024 Wimbledon where he lost to eventual winner, Carlos Alcaraz. He had a great season so far, reaching the quarterfinals in Australian Open and semifinals in Monte Carlo.

Roberto Carballes Baena has been a inconsistent player on the grass with a terrible 7-16 record. The Spaniard is 1-5 in the Wimbledon main-draws. He enters the competition without any practice as the 32-year-old missed crucial grass competitions due to injury sustained in Italian Open. He appeared in the Australian Open this year and reached the third round, beating Duckworth and Tabilo. Baena has no wins against the top-20 players. He previously lost to Holger Rune in 2023 and Zverev in 2022.

Roberto Carballes Baena increases Spain's lead! 🇪🇸

He takes the second match 6-4 6-4 with Spain now leading 2-0 in the tie 👏#DavisCup pic.twitter.com/ZbA9WKWaYr
— Davis Cup (@DavisCup) February 1, 2025

Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Head to Head Record

Alex de Minaur holds the 2-0 record over Roberto Carballes Baena and their matchups have rarely been straightforward. The duo also faced each other in Alicante (2018) which is not part of the ATP events.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Year
2024	Antwerp	Round of 16	Alex de Minaur	2-6, 6-4, 6-2
2024	Rome Masters	Round of 64	Alex de Minaur	6–3, 6–2

Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Career Comparison

Alex de Minaur	Category	Roberto Carballes Baena
11	Current Ranking	71
276-167	Career W-L	127–158
27-12	YTD W-L	20-12
9	Career Titles	2
0	Grand Slams	0
0	YTD Titles	0

Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon 2025 Prediction

Alex de Minaur is more composed and more experienced player on grass compared to his Spanish rival. The Australian ace takes solid advantage through flatten out shots, his speed and agility on court. Carballes Baena didn’t even appear in the grass season and lack of experience will haunt him against Minaur. The Australian ace has the ability to wrap up this game in straight sets.

Prediction: Alex de Minaur to win in straight sets.

Alex de Minaur vs. Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon 2025 Betting Odds

According to the implied probability on the money line, Alex de Minaur starts with a 80% chance of crack the opening round. Here are the odds for the match (as per BetMGM):

Alex de Minaur Win: 1/80
Roberto Carballes Baena Win: 33/1

At 1/80, Alex de Minaur looks clear favorite, considering his grass-court dominance and H2H edge. Roberto Carballes Baena, at 33/1, offers surprise talent but the odds back the Australian ace to prevail.

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Games Over 30.5: 2/1
Total Games Under 30.5: 4/11
Set 1 winner: Alex de Minaur– 1/11, Baena– 9/1
Set 2 winner: Alex de Minaur– 1/11, Baena– 15/2
Total Sets Under 4.5: 1/25
Total Sets Over 4.5: 31/2

(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

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