Musetti and De Minaur meet for a second time in just two weeks
Sixth seed Alex De Minaur will take on the tenth-seeded Lorenzo Musetti in this round of 16 encounter at the Madrid Masters for a place in the quarterfinals. This will be a rematch between the two who just competed against one another at the Monte-Carlo Masters a couple of weeks ago.
Both players have had a mixed season thus far. While it hasn’t been easy to reach the final stages of tournaments for either of the two, each player has an appearance in the final, but both ended up losing to Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz. De Minaur made it to the final of the ABN AMRO Open (Rotterdam), while Musetti is coming off a more recent loss in the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
De Minaur and Musetti have faced off against each other 3 times thus far, making their upcoming round of 16 clash their 4th match. The Italian holds a 2-1 advantage over De Minaur and, more importantly, he also won their most recent encounter in the semifinal of the Masters 1000 event in Monte-Carlo.
The pair first played against one another in the 2022 Australian Open, which went the way of the Australian, who won in 4 sets. However, Musetti has reeled off back-to-back wins since then.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2022 | Australian Open | Round of 128 | Alex de Minaur | 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 |
| 2024 | London / Queen’s Club | Round of 32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| 2025 | ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo | Semifinal | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) |
De Minaur, who turned pro in 2015, has been on tour for 4 more years than Musetti, who turned professional in 2019. To date, the Australian holds a total of 9 titles while the Italian has only 2 to his name. As far as this year is concerned, both players are searching for their first title.
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| Alex De Minaur | Category | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 7 | Ranking | 11 |
| 27-/163 | Career W-L | 144-116 |
| 22 – 8 | YTD W-L | 12 – 5 |
| 9 | Career Titles | 2 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
This match seems to favor the Italian much more, given that they will be playing on clay. Musetti’s game is much more suited to this surface, while De Minaur tends to struggle. While the Australian has improved, it is still his least favored surface.
Moreover, Musetti’s recent win over the Australian was also on clay at the Monte-Carlo Masters. This could be another 3 set classic between the two, with Musetti expected to come out on top.
Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti in 3 sets.
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