Dec 3, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Stephen Thompson (red gloves) reacts after fighting Kevin Holland (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim fight!

MMA has always been a young fighter’s game, but some veterans refuse to fade quietly into the night. ‘Father Time’ remains undefeated in sports, yet certain athletes seem to negotiate better deals with him than others! The UFC’s welterweight division showcases this eternal struggle between youth and experience better than most weight classes. Every weekend, hungry prospects test themselves against seasoned veterans who have seen it all before.

This weekend at UFC Nashville, one of the sport’s most beloved veterans faces a crossroads moment. Stephen Thompson, at 42, finds himself staring down the barrel of a must win situation against rising Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim. The karate master’s back is firmly against the wall after losing four of his last five fights. Meanwhile, the 27 year old Bonfim represents everything Thompson once was: young, hungry, and dangerous in every phase of the game.

Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Preview

Thompson brings a 17-8-1 record into this crucial welterweight showdown. The South Carolina native stands 6’0″ with a 75 inch reach, using his karate background to create unique angles that have puzzled opponents for years. His striking stats tell the story of a precision fighter. He lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute with 46% accuracy while absorbing just 3.02 strikes per minute. Those numbers reflect his point fighting style that relies on distance management and counter attacking rather than aggressive pressure.

Gabriel Bonfim enters with an impressive 17-1 record. The Brazilian stands slightly taller at 6’1″ but gives up three inches of reach at 72 inches. His statistics paint the picture of a more aggressive, complete fighter. He lands 5.22 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy while defending 65% of his opponent’s strikes. These numbers suggest he’s comfortable trading punches and maintaining forward pressure. His 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes with 76% accuracy make him a legitimate threat to put the fight on the ground.

Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have made up their mind for this fight. According to Fanduel, Gabriel Bonfim is a heavy -430 favorite. Meanwhile Stephen Thompson is a significant +300 underdog. These odds reflect the betting market’s belief that age and recent struggles have caught up with the veteran fighter.

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The odds for the fight going the distance has also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-154) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +122.

Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Predictions And Picks

This fight represents a classic styles clash between Thompson’s elusive striking and Bonfim’s aggressive, well rounded approach. Thompson’s best chance involves keeping the fight standing and using his superior reach to pick apart Bonfim from the outside. His karate background gives him unique timing and distance management that could frustrate the Brazilian’s forward pressure. However, those advantages become meaningless once the fight hits the ground.

Bonfim’s path to victory seems clearer and more direct. His youth advantage should allow him to maintain a high pace that gradually wears down the veteran Thompson. The Brazilian’s takedown accuracy of 76% suggests he will eventually find success getting the fight to the mat. Once there, his submission skills and Thompson’s average ground game create a mismatch that heavily favors the younger fighter.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Gabriel Bonfim to win the fight via Submission.

(Image Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck – Imagn Images)

Gabriel Bonfim

Stephen Thompson

UFC Nashville

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!