After Matchday 28 which ended on March 2, the Premier League title race has narrowed down further. It’s now become more of a two-horse race between Arsenal and Manchester City. The Gunners are currently sitting five points clear at the summit.
However, they’ve played one game more than Man City, which is a nuance the market has priced in. Behind them, the chasing pack have drifted into the longshot territory as third places Manchester United are eight points away from second-placed Man City.
So, Man United, Liverpool and Chelsea are mathematically alive but priced accordingly. Only 10 matchweeks are left and with fixture congestion hovering above their heads, a number of contextual data need to be considered before committing futures capital.
Saturday: @ManCity beat Leeds to go just two points behind Arsenal
Sunday: @Arsenal beat Chelsea to regain their five-point lead
For more futures markets, check out our Premier League futures & outrights page. Here’s how the Premier League winners odds today stack up, plus analysis on the top contenders, value angles and trends you need to know.
2025-26 Premier League Winners Odds: Top Contenders
Player / Team
Best Odds
Implied %
Arsenal
-225
69.2%
Manchester City
+160
38.5%
Manchester United
+8000
1.2%
Liverpool
+25000
0.4%
Chelsea
+50000
0.2%
Odds from BetMGM and FanDuel, accurate as the morning ET of March 3, 2026. Lines may move as the season progresses.
Favorites to Win Premier League 2025-26
Arsenal (-225)
Arsenal are occupying the top of the table spot after 28 matchdays. They are leading Manchester City by five points, though that advantage is partially artificial given Man City have a game in hand. The implied probability of 69.2% says that the market views them as clear frontrunners but not runaway champions.
Across their last 10 league matches, Arsenal have produced approximately 2.1 xG per game. They’ve conceded under 0.9 xGA per game in that span. It is one of the strongest differentials in the division. They’ve won eight of those 10 fixtures. It includes statement home performances against top-six opposition. Their high press forced double-digit high attacking numbers in those games.
Tactically, Mikel Arteta’s side usually create a good possession percentage as inverted full-backs hold central overloads. The Gunners are still active in European competition, and rotation has already slightly reduced attacking fluency in back-to-back weeks. Their remaining away schedule includes two top-half away trips, potential inflection points in the title race.
Manchester City (+160)
Man City’s 38.5% implied probability for the title is a little aggressive for a second-placed team. However, it’s still justified given they still have a game in hand compared to Arsenal and possess a historical closing strength under Pep Guardiola. Over their last 10 Premier League outings, Man City have averaged nearly 2.4 xG.
Meanwhile, they’ve conceded under 1.0 xGA per match. Their home record remains elite as they’re unbeaten in 14 league matches at the Etihad. Whereas, their away form has stabilized with four consecutive away wins entering March.
Importantly, Man City’s set-piece conversion rate has improved remarkably in 2026. They’ve generated three goals from dead-ball situations in the last month. However, similar to Arsenal, Man City are handling fixture congestion with FA Cup, EFL Cup, and the Champions League.
So, they are also holding a lot of rotation pressure. Considering they can potentially close the gap to two points with their game in hand, the price says that this race is not settled. If Arsenal drop points even once in the next two weeks, the market could invert quickly.
Longshot Picks & Sleepers
Manchester United (+8000)
Manchester United are currently sitting in third position in the league table, eight points away from Man City in second and 13 points away from Arsenal in first. They’ve come quite far since the start of the season.
However, even though they’ve come a long way under the new guidance of Michael Carrick, the 1.2% implied probability says they have no chance of winning the league. Their last 10 league matches show inconsistency.
They’ve registered four wins, three draws, three defeats and an xG/xGA ratio hovering near parity. Defensive instability has been a core issue. They’ve conceded over 1.4 xGA per game in that span.
Liverpool (+25000)
Liverpool’s odds here depict more mathematical improbability rather than talent deficiency. Sitting in fifth position, they’re 16 points away from the top spot. Their attacking numbers remain competitive. They’ve produced around 2.0 xG per match across the last 10.
But their defensive volatility leading to inconsistency remains a concern. They’ve conceded in seven of those fixtures. They also had to handle heavy rotation due to their Champions League and FA Cup commitments.
Chelsea (+50000)
Chelsea’s price signals near impossible chances in the title race. Despite flashes of attacking cohesion, their last 10 matches include multiple dropped points against even bottom-half opponents. Their xGA has consistently exceeded 1.3 per game. They also have a 19-point gap from the first-placed Arsenal.
Odds Movement & Market Storyline
The market has tightened gradually over the past three weeks. Arsenal’s price shortened from near -150 to -225 following consecutive wins while Man City briefly drifted after a February draw. However, the key narrative is structural. Arsenal’s five-point lead is fragile because City hold the scheduling advantage.
If Man City win their game in hand, the gap compresses. And if Arsenal drop points even in one game, the confidence in both camps can affect the rest in line. With direct and indirect schedule difficulty converging, this race may extend deep toward Matchweek 38 in May.
How We’re Betting Premier League Winners Odds Right Now
This is effectively neck-to-neck. Arsenal’s five-point cushion is meaningful but partially offset by the extra match played. Man City’s history in closing period of the season, deeper squad rotation capacity and game in hand create genuine upside.
We are not allocating heavily on Arsenal given their marginal separation. Instead, Man City at plus money offers superior risk-reward. A small staggered entry on Manchester City provides leverage if Arsenal stumble even once in the coming fortnight.
In short: Arsenal deserve favorite status, but the gap is not decisive enough to eliminate Man City’s value.
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Historical Trends & Past Winners
Who Usually Wins Premier League?
Over the past decade, titles have predominantly been shared between Manchester City and Liverpool, with occasionally Arsenal and Chelsea giving tough competitions in the title race. High xG differential and defensive efficiency (sub-1.0 xGA per match) correlate strongly with championship outcomes in the past. Both Arsenal and Man City currently fit that profile. So, this has essentially become a two-horse race for the title.
Recent Winners
Season
Winner
2024-25
Liverpool
2023-24
Manchester City
2022-23
Manchester City
2021-22
Manchester City
2020-21
Manchester City
Manchester City’s sustained dominance illustrates why they remain dangerous even when trailing ar this point point of the season.
Premier League 2025-26 Betting FAQs
When is the Premier League title given? The Premier League champions are confirmed after Matchweek 38, scheduled for May 2026. All the final-day fixtures will kick off simultaneously.
Does fixture congestion matter? Yes. European commitments and domestic cup progression increase rotation and injury risk, materially impacting league consistency.
How often does the favourite at this stage win the title? Teams leading by 5+ points in March often convert their chances to winners. However, seasons with a game-in-hand dynamic have been tight.
How to Bet Premier League Futures
Monitor schedule asymmetry, injury reports, and team form like xG differential rather than raw points alone. Shop odds across books, and consider incremental entries instead of full exposure at compressed prices.
At present, this is a two-team market. Arsenal lead. Manchester City lurk. And with margins thin and variance inevitable, the final third of this season promises volatility worthy of disciplined futures strategy.
Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
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