The 2025 WNBA Playoffs are heating up, and after an exciting round 1, action has moved to the semi-finals. In Game 1 of the semis, we will have the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx grouped against the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury. The best-of-five series kicks off on Sunday, September 21, with the Lynx hosting the Mercury at Target Center in Minneapolis.
The Lynx, after dominating the regular season with the league’s best offensive and defensive ratings, enter as heavy favorites after sweeping the Golden State Valkyries in the first round. The Mercury, on the other hand, pulled off a stunning upset by knocking the defending champions, New York Liberty, out in a hard-fought 2-1 series. This marks their first semi-final appearance since 2021. Both teams have strong veteran presence with notable offensive and defensive firepower, and we can expect a high-octane semi-final series.
Where to Watch Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Semi-Finals Game 1
Time: 5 pm ET Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota Where to Watch: ESPN, WNBA League Pass
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Lineups, News, Form
Minnesota Lynx
The Minnesota Lynx dominated the league for the entire season. After finishing off as 2024 WNBA Finalists, they entered the new season in red-hot form, and maintained top positioning for most of the season. In fact, they were the only team to reach round 2 in two games, after taking down the extension team, Valkyries.
They lead the league in offensive rating at 109.5, defensive rating at 97.5 as well as net rating at +12.1. In fact, they also lead their opponents in scoring at 86.1 points per game. They were shooting 47.2% from the field, and 37.8% from the three-point range during the regular season. In the upcoming series, their depth and home-court advantage makes them a formidable opponent as they chase their fifth championship, and first since 2017.
Here are a few facts about the Lynx:
Lynx’s Napheesa Collier is the second-leading scorer with an average of 22.9 ppg.
Courtney Williams averaged 6.2 assists per game, the second highest in the season.
Kayla McBride hit 2.6 3 pointers per game on an average, which is the second highest in the season.
Lynx Expected Lineups
Napheesa Collier, Bridget Carleton, Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams Key Bench Players: Natisha Hiedeman Injuries: DiJonai Carrington- OUT (Foot)
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury entered the 2025 season after undergoing a massive transformation during the offseason. After letting go of stars such as Brittney Griner and retirement of legendary Diana Taurasi, the Mercury entered a new era with acquisition of names such as Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Sami Whitcomb and more.
After finishing the previous season in seventh spot, the Mercury stunned everyone by grabbing fourth spot in the 2025 standings. In the first round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs, they defeated the reigning champions, Liberty, with a 2-1 series win. Alyssa Thomas was a standout for the Mercury with her historic triple double, while Satou Sabally, Sami Whitcomb, and Kahleah Copper made key contributions in a thrilling Game 3 showdown.
Here are a few facts about the Mercury-
The Mercury are seventh in terms of offensive rating at 103.6, and fifth in terms of defensive rating at 100.4
They scored 82.8 points on an average, seventh highest in the season.
The Mercury shot 43.3% from the field and 34.0% from the three-point range.
Mercury Expected Lineup
Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Natasha Mack, Monique Akoa Makani, Kahleah Copper Key Bench Players: DeWanna Bonner, Sami Whitcomb Injuries: None. The Mercury have a clean injury report.
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Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Semi-Finals Game 1 Total Over/Under Prediction- WNBA Best Bets
The Minnesota Lynx have been heavy favorites to not only win the series but even clinch the title. As for the upcoming game, odds suggest they will win the upcoming game at -6.5 spread and -350 moneyline. The upcoming game between the Lynx and the Mercury is expected to be a low-scoring affair similar to their past meetings during the regular season.
Here is an overview of my selections:
Picks
Odds on FanDuel
Total U 158.5
-110
Spread: Lynx -6.5
-114
Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points
+102
Moneyline- Lynx
-350
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Semi-Finals Game 1 Player Props Predictions- WNBA Betting Picks
Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points: The Phoenix Mercury forward is averaging 16.3 points per game this postseason. During the Mercury’s two regular season clashes she played against the Lynx, Thomas dropped an average of over 20 points. Hence, we can expect her to come up with the same kind of gameplay on Sunday.
Napheesa Collier U 21.5 Points: The Minnesota Lynx forward and MVP frontrunner dropped an average of 22.0 points this postseason. During the Lynx’s regular season meetup with the Mercury, she came up with an average of 15.3 points. Hence, we believe she would be restricted in Game 1.
Courtney Williams U 5.5 Assists: Williams averaged 6.2 assists per game during the regular season, and 5.5 apg during the postseason. Against the Mercury, she dished out 5 assists on an average. The Mercury will restrict her under on Sunday.
Alanna Smith U 4.5 Rebounds: Smith averaged 5.1 rebounds per game, but she could only grab seven rebounds in postseason games. In fact, the 2025 co-Defensive Player of the Year managed to reach her seasonal average just once in the last five overall games. She is expected to stay under in the upcoming game.
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Game 1 Spread Prediction
The Minnesota Lynx locked horns with the Mercury thrice during the 2025 regular season. Out of those three contests, the Lynx prevailed twice while the Mercury clinched one victory. Moreover, the Lynx boast a 20-2 record at home, while the Mercury have been 12-10 on the road. While the data and Lynx’s recent success indicates that they could dominate their rivals in the upcoming game, even Phoenix have been a dominating force off late.
Considering how the playoffs have been, one can expect a close contest, but the Lynx are expected to prevail and take a 1-0 lead.
Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.
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