Dec 7, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Kai Asakura (blues gloves) entered the arena before the fight against Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) fights at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

ufc-predictions

UFC 319 Prediction and Betting Odds – Tim Elliot vs. Kai Asakura Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

The flyweight division has always been MMA’s most overlooked weight class, despite producing some of the most technical battles in the sport. These 125 pound warriors move like lightning and hit like freight trains, but somehow never get the respect they deserve. Maybe it’s because casual fans prefer watching heavyweights lumber around throwing haymakers, or perhaps the speed makes it harder to appreciate the chess match happening at breakneck pace. Either way, flyweights continue putting on clinics while fighting for scraps of attention.

Saturday night at UFC 319 in Chicago brings together two fighters who represent completely different paths to flyweight relevance. Tim Elliott has been grinding in the UFC trenches for years. Meanwhile, Kai Asakura jumped the line entirely, earning a title shot in his UFC debut after dominating RIZIN’s bantamweight division. That title shot against Alexandre Pantoja didn’t go his way, but it established him as a serious threat in the flyweight division. Now both men need a statement win to stay relevant in this unforgiving division.

Tim Elliot vs Kai Asakura Preview

Tim Elliott stands 5’7″ with a 66 inch reach. He lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy, but his real weapon is his wrestling. He averages 3.73 takedowns per fight with 47% success rate, turning fights into grappling nightmares where his experience shines. His submission average of 1.0 per fight shows he’s always hunting for the finish on the ground. Elliott’s 59% takedown defense might seem weak, but he’s faced elite wrestlers throughout his career.

Kai Asakura stands at 5’8″ with a 69 inch reach. His 21-5 record includes knockouts that would make welterweights jealous, powered by timing that seems almost supernatural. Asakura only lands 2.40 significant strikes per minute, but his 58% accuracy means every shot has serious intentions behind it. The concerning stat is his 4.52 strikes absorbed per minute with just 38% defensive rate, suggesting he’s willing to take damage to land his own shots. Asakura’s 57% takedown defense looks similar on paper to that of Elliot’s, but he’s never faced anyone with Elliott’s scrambling ability and relentless pressure.

Tim Elliot vs Kai Asakura MMA Betting Odds

According to FanDuel, Kai Asakura is a heavy favorite at -330. Meanwhile, Tim Elliott is sitting at +265 as a solid underdog. These odds reflect Asakura’s knockout power and the belief that his striking will overwhelm Elliott before wrestling becomes a factor.

The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is a bit higher and the odds (-116) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -110

Tim Elliot vs Kai Asakura MMA Predictions And Picks

This matchup comes down to whether Tim Elliott can survive the early storm and drag Kai Asakura into deep waters where his wrestling takes over. Asakura’s counter striking is legitimate, and his timing against aggressive fighters has been devastating throughout his career. Elliott’s entries and predictable pressure could walk him right into the shots that ended fights in RIZIN.

However, Elliott’s chin has held up remarkably well throughout his career, with his last knockout loss coming back in 2009. His weird angles and constant stance switching might confuse Asakura’s timing just enough to close distance and secure takedowns. Once on the ground, Elliott’s experience advantage becomes massive, and his submission skills could end the fight quickly.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Kai Asakura to win via KO/TKO.

(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)

(Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie – Imagn Images)

Kai Asakura

Tim Elliot

UFC 319

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!