UFC 324 kicks off the Paramount+ era with a historic lightweight showdown at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Former interim champion Justin Gaethje faces surging British star Paddy Pimblett for the interim 155-pound title in a 5-round main event. This fight determines who faces undisputed champion Ilia Topuria later in 2026.
Gaethje brings a 26-5 record and legendary violence, fresh off a unanimous decision win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313. Pimblett enters on a 7-fight UFC winning streak with victories over Tony Ferguson, King Green and Michael Chandler. The Liverpudlian is a -235 favorite with Gaethje around +190 as the underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
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Odds updated: January 21, 2026 – 2:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Gaethje vs Pimblett.
Tale Of The Tape
Justin Gaethje
Paddy Pimblett
Record
26-5
23-3
Age
36
31
Height
5’11”
5’10”
Reach
70.5″
72″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
6.73
4.82
Striking Accuracy
59%
51%
Takedowns
0.76
2.12
Takedown Defense
68%
57%
Submission Avg.
0.1
0.9
Pimblett holds a submission advantage with nearly one attempt per 15 minutes, while Gaethje lands more strikes with better accuracy. Gaethje’s 68% takedown defense will be tested against Pimblett’s grappling game. The 1.5-inch reach advantage for Pimblett could matter in an extended striking exchange.
Fighter Breakdown – Justin Gaethje Analysis
Gaethje comes in with a 26-5 record and victories over Rafael Fiziev (twice), Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. The 36 year old is one of the most violent fighters in UFC history with a record 9 Fight of the Night bonuses!
Strengths: Devastating leg kicks and power punching. Elite NCAA Division I wrestling credentials that he rarely uses. Exceptional cardio for five rounds. Underrated chin (only knocked out once since 2018). Relentless pressure and output.
Weaknesses: Defensive liabilities from fighting with hands low. Age and accumulated damage from wars with Holloway, Chandler and Alvarez. Hasn’t fought for a legitimate title since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2020. Vulnerable to submissions when pressured to grapple.
Betting Angles: Gaethje’s +190 moneyline offers legitimate upset value, but his path runs through a knockout. Gaethje by KO/TKO (+390) makes more sense than a decision, as he’s unlikely to control Pimblett on the ground.
Fighter Breakdown – Paddy Pimblett Analysis
Pimblett brings a 23-3 record with 7 straight UFC victories including wins over Michael Chandler, King Green and Tony Ferguson. The 31 year old Liverpudlian is a former Cage Warriors champion with a dangerous submission game and massive UK fanbase.
Strengths: Elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with 5 UFC submission wins. Excellent scrambling and transitions. Strong offensive wrestling (2.12 TD/15min). Granite chin and underrated boxing with improved pocket defense. Championship experience from Cage Warriors. Durable and never been stopped.
Weaknesses: 57% takedown defense leaves openings for wrestlers. Can get hit clean in exchanges. Questionable cardio in later rounds of decision fights. First UFC title fight brings massive pressure. Facing a significant step up in competition.
Betting Angles: Pimblett by Submission (+140 at FanDuel) is our primary angle. Gaethje has been submitted three times and rarely grapples. Over 2.5 rounds also appeals, as Pimblett may need time to get Gaethje down and work submissions.
This is the clearest path to victory for the favorite. Gaethje has been submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. His defensive grappling is his biggest weakness, and he actively avoids using his wrestling. Pimblett submitted King Green in round one, stopped Chandler with ground and pound leading to a TKO, and has 5 total UFC submission wins. We see Pimblett mixing striking early, securing a takedown in rounds two or three, and finishing via rear-naked choke or triangle. At +140 (implied 42%), we think this hits closer to 55% of the time.
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Both fighters are extremely durable. Gaethje has only been stopped once since 2018, while Pimblett has never been finished. Pimblett’s likely gameplan involves feeling Gaethje out on the feet before committing to takedowns, meaning a round-one finish is unlikely. Gaethje’s cardio holds for five rounds, making him dangerous throughout. We see this going at least into round three before Pimblett secures position for a finish. At –110 (implied 52%), we think this hits around 65%.
Longshot Flier: Gaethje by KO/TKO in Rounds 1-3 (+550)
Small stake only. If the upset happens, it’s early. Gaethje hits harder than anyone Pimblett has faced and could land a devastating leg kick or overhand early before the grappling takes over. Pimblett has shown defensive holes in exchanges with lesser strikers. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum on this explosive but unlikely outcome.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Paddy Pimblett by Submission (+140)
We are backing Pimblett to win via submission. Gaethje will have success early with leg kicks and pressure, likely taking round one on volume. Pimblett should be able to weather the storm, secure his first takedown late in round 2, and find a submission in round 3-4 as Gaethje tires from defending grappling. The matchup heavily favors Pimblett’s elite BJJ against Gaethje’s poor submission defense. While Gaethje’s power makes this dangerous, Pimblett’s well-rounded game and durability should carry him to interim gold.
How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card
Beyond the main event, UFC 324 offers former champions and rising contenders that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Historic Paramount+ debut creates added pressure and variance. Expect fighters to push for finishes on the big stage.
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong in the co-main is a dangerous swing fight. O’Malley on a two-fight skid makes his -210 price questionable.
Derrick Lewis vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta is pure finish hunting. Consider “Fight doesn’t go the distance” props heavily.
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