Senegal
Iraq
>World Cup · 3Senegal vs Iraq: Prediction and Odds, World Cup, 26/06/2026
Two desperate sides collide at Toronto Stadium on June 26 when Senegal face Iraq in a World Cup group stage fixture that amounts to sudden death. Both teams sit pointless after two defeats, and elimination awaits the loser. Senegal are priced at 1.22 to claim victory, reflecting their superior pedigree despite a turbulent campaign so far.
Projected final score: 2-0
Senegal carry a clear class advantage into this dead-rubber decider, averaging 1.67 goals scored per game across their last six compared to Iraq's 0.83. With Mane, Sarr, and Jackson all available against a defence that has shipped seven goals in two World Cup matches, a home win at 1.22 looks well-supported despite Mendy's absence in goal.
Iraq's attacking absences, including Mohanad Ali out and Aymen Hussein highly unlikely to feature, leave them with minimal cutting edge after scoring just one goal in this tournament. A clean sheet for Senegal is plausible, keeping the total at a contained two goals, which aligns with 2.40 given both sides' inconsistent finishing and Senegal's defensive structure under Thiaw.
Recommended Bets for Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal vs Iraq, Odds Comparison
Match Analysis
Senegal enter this decisive group clash as commanding favourites at 1.22, backed by a clear attacking edge. With Mane, Sarr, and Jackson available, the Lions of Teranga possess the individual quality to break down a porous Iraqi defence.
- 3 World Cup goals scored versus Iraq's 1, reflecting a superior attacking output in the tournament.
- 1.67 goals per game across their last six matches, well above Iraq's 0.83 average.
- Iraq have conceded 7 goals in two World Cup games, exposing a defence Senegal's forwards can exploit.
- Internal federation disputes reportedly resolved, giving coach Pape Thiaw a united, focused squad for this must-win fixture.
Iraq face a steep challenge at 11.00, chasing their first World Cup win since 1986. Depleted by the absences of Aymen Hussein and Mohanad Ali, their already limited attack has managed just one goal in two tournament appearances.
- Iraq failed to score in 2 of their last 6 games, highlighting a chronic lack of attacking threat.
- Mohanad Ali ruled out and Aymen Hussein highly unlikely to feature, gutting their forward options.
- Iraq have conceded 1.83 goals per game across their last six matches, leaving them exposed at the back.
Key point: With both attacks struggling for consistency, the double chance pairing Senegal or draw alongside 2.40 offers a cautious alternative angle for this low-scoring fixture.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Iraq
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Probabilities & Odds: Senegal vs Iraq
Source : betmgm.comMatch Information
Lineups: Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal
Starters
- 1 Mory Diaw
- 2 Krepin Diatta
- 3 Kalidou Koulibaly
- 4 Moussa Niakhate
- 5 El Hadji Malick Diouf
- 6 Pape Gueye
- 7 Idrissa Gueye
- 8 Lamine Camara
- 9 Ismaila Sarr
- 10 Nicolas Jackson
- 11 Sadio Mane
Bench
- Ismail Jakobs
- Pape Matar Sarr
- Iliman Ndiaye
- Bamba Dieng
- Mamadou Sarr
- Fode Ballo-Toure
- Abdoulaye Seck
Absent
- Edouard Mendy (Left knee injury sustained against Norway; ligament issue suspected.)
Iraq
Starters
- 1 Ahmed Basil
- 2 Hussein Ali
- 3 Zaid Tahseen
- 4 Akam Hashem
- 5 Merchas Doski
- 6 Amir Al-Ammari
- 7 Ahmed Qasem
- 8 Zaid Ismail
- 9 Zidane Iqbal
- 10 Ibrahim Bayesh
- 11 Ali Al-Hamadi
Bench
- Ali Jasim
- Youssef Amyn
- Jalal Hassan
- Rebin Sulaka
- Manaf Younis
- Frans Putros
- Mustafa Sadoon
Absent
- Mohanad Ali (Expected to miss out due to injury.)
Medium confidence
Senegal line up in a 4-3-3 against Iraq's compact 4-1-4-1, a shape designed to crowd the midfield and limit the space that Sadio Mane and Ismaila Sarr thrive in. The Lions of Teranga will look to stretch Iraq wide and exploit the channels behind their defensive midfield anchor.
Iraq's disciplined mid-block could make this a patient, probing affair, but Senegal's engine room, anchored by Idrissa Gueye and Lamine Camara, carries the quality to break lines and create the overloads needed to unlock a side built primarily to frustrate.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Senegal vs Iraq
Senegal at 1.22 is the clear pick. Iraq's woeful form, one of the weakest attacking records in the group, and the weight of a first World Cup appearance since 1986 all point to a side lacking the tools to compete here. Pape Thiaw's men carry superior quality across every line and should convert their desperation into three points. Back the home win with confidence. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal to win at 1.22 is the primary pick, driven by a clear attacking edge: the Lions of Teranga average 1.67 goals per game across their last six outings versus Iraq's 0.83, making outfield quality the single most decisive factor in this group-stage decider.
What is the highest odd for Senegal to win?
The best available price on a Senegal victory is 1.22. Bettors seeking a safer entry can cover both a Senegal win and the draw through a double chance 1X in words, though the straight home pick at 1.22 already represents strong value given the class gap.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals looks the sharper call at 2.40. Iraq have failed to score in two of their last six matches, and Senegal's defense has conceded just five goals in two World Cup games. A tight, low-scoring affair fits the profile of both sides' recent output.
When and where is Senegal vs Iraq played?
Senegal vs Iraq kicks off on 26 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC (21:00 CET) at Toronto Stadium in Canada.
Can Iraq pull off an upset against Senegal?
An Iraq upset is possible but genuinely unlikely. The 11.00 price reflects just how steep the climb is: Iraq have scored only one World Cup goal this tournament, conceded seven, and face a Senegalese outfield anchored by Mane and Koulibaly. Without Ali Hussein, their attacking threat is further diminished.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
BTTS No at 1.62 stands out as the best alternative market. Iraq's chronic scoring struggles (one World Cup goal, blanks in two of their last six) make it hard to see them troubling even a reshuffled Senegalese backline, offering solid value for a clean-sheet-oriented bet.
nba 
soccer 
