Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty WNBA Playoffs Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets- 09/14/2025

Both Mercury and Liberty finished the regular season with same, 27-17, record.

On Sunday, September 14, 2025, the Phoenix Mercury will welcome the New York Liberty at PHX Arena for their first round opener of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs. Both Mercury and Liberty finished with the same 27-17 record, but the former received the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage owing to their head-to-head record against the reigning champions.

The Mercury head into the playoffs on the back of a three-game losing streak, having slumped to the Dallas Wings in a blowout fashion. The Mercury displayed poor offensive prowess and only two players managed to finish in double digits, including Satou Sabally with 14 points, and Kalani Brown with 12 points.

On the other hand, the Liberty are in winning momentum, having won each of their last three games. In their last regular season fixture, they took down the Chicago Sky 91-86. Breanna Stewart led the charts with 24 points, followed by Rebekah Gardner, who poured in 15 points off the bench.

Would the Mercury be able to use their home advantage to edge out the defending champions and kick off their playoff campaign with a victory? Below are the predictions for player props, total, and spread. Check them out!

Where to Watch Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty

Time: 5 pm ET

Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch: ESPN, WNBA League Pass

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Lineups, News, Form

Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury have been in hot form this season. They won six back-to-back clashes before suffering in the last three games. They went 3-1 against the Liberty in the season. They maintain a solid offensive rating of 103.6 and defensive rating of 100.6.

Here are a few stats about them:

Phoenix has a 13-11 conference record, and 15-7 record at home.
Satou Sabally has recorded single-digit performance in only five of the Mercury’s regular season games.
Alyssa Thomas recorded 14 double-doubles this season.

Phoenix Mercury Expected Lineup

Alyssa Thomas (F), Satou Sabally (F), Natasha Mack (C), Kahleah Copper (G), Monique Akoa Makani (G)

Key Bench Players: Kathryn Westbeld, Kalani Brown

Injuries: None. They are all fit and fine.

New York Liberty

The New York Liberty kicked off the regular season with a bang, but soon lost their momentum. They maintain a higher offensive rating than Mercury at 105.8 and a defensive rating of 100.6. The Liberty went inconsistent during their campaign and while spending most of the season in top two, they slid down the standings and ended up in the fifth spot.

New York showed their potential earlier in the season, but injuries to players such as Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Natasha Cloud, Sabrina Ionescu, and more, pushed them back. Let’s go through a few stats about them:

The last week of the regular season was the first time since late May that the defending champions have had full squad available.
They head into the playoffs with their starters having played 12 games together.
All five of New York’s starters have won at least one WNBA title.

New York Liberty Expected Lineup

Breanna Stewart (F), Leonie Fiebich (F), Jonquel Jones (C ), Natasha Cloud (G), Sabrina Ionescu (G)

Key Bench Players: Kennedy Burke, Marine Johanes, Nyara Sabally

Injuries: The reigning champions have a clean injury report for the upcoming game.

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Total Over/Under Prediction- WNBA Best Bets

Phoenix has a solid offense but they have also struggled as seen in their 66-point outing to Minnesota in July 2025. The New York Liberty have averaged 84.4 points while Mercury have averaged 82.8 points per game. Both teams have struggled on the road, but still Phoenix holds an upper hand with a 12-10 record as compared to New York’s 10-12.

In all four of their clashes in the 2025 regular season, both teams have mostly scored around and over 80+. However, there was only once incident where the Mercury crossed the 100+ point mark while the Liberty finished near 90. Their last meeting in Phoenix totaled 143, I expect a tight defensive battle between the Mercury and Liberty on Sunday.

Total: Under 164.5 for -105 at BetMGM

Here is an overview of my selections

Picks	BetMGM Odds
Total U 164.5	-105
Spread: Liberty -1.5	-115
Breanna Stewart O 18.5 Points	-125
Money Line-Liberty	-130

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Player Props Predictions- WNBA Betting Picks

Breanna Stewart O 18.5 Points- Breanna Stewart is among the top ten scorers in the league right now. She is averaging 18.3 points per game, and is expected to score over 18.5 points here.

Alyssa Thomas U 9.5 Assists- Thomas is leading the charts in assists this season with an average of 9.2 assists per game. In the last five games, she dished out 10 assists twice, and nine twice. In the upcoming game, she is expected to be limited to nine assists.

Jonquel Jones U 9.5 Rebounds- Jonquel Jones has grabbed 251 rebounds this season at an average of 8.1 rebounds per game. In the last four games, she could only cross the figure once. She is expected to stay under 9.5 rebounds on Sunday.

Main Pick: Breanna Stewart O 18.5 Points at BetMGM for -125.

Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Spread Prediction

The Phoenix Mercury have been phenomenal this season, but the Liberty are the reigning champions. They are also heading into the playoffs with a completely healthy roster, the set of players which gave them a solid start in the beginning of the season. The Liberty are seeking their third straight Finals berth.

However, they must not underestimate the Mercury, who would aim to advance to the next round after three seasons.

It is expected to be a close contest but the Liberty will pull off a win with a minimum margin.

Spread/ Money Line Pick: Spread: Liberty -1.5 for -115 at BetMGM

Garima Ranawat

Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.