Not much has changed in the AFC after Week 10
We have now reached that point of the NFL season where the upcoming games will carry a lot of importance as teams fight for the right to make the postseason. For some teams, the playoffs are nothing but a dream as they stand a next to nothing chance at progressing beyond the regular season.
For several others, however, each game going forward will be crucial, not only in terms of their standings in the division but also in the conference, with wild-card spots up for grabs.
Week 10 saw important wins by the Broncos, Colts, and Patriots, all teams that are currently at the top of their respective divisions. Meanwhile, the Bills, Jaguars, and Steelers suffered losses that could have huge ramifications ahead.
So, without further ado, here are the playoff chances for the AFC teams ahead of Week 11 as per the official NFL website.
Despite three teams having an 8-2 record, the New England Patriots are the only team with a 97% chance of making the playoffs, while the Broncos and Colts have a 92% chance each.
The 6-3 Buffalo Bills are also in with an 89% chance, while the 7-3 Chargers are next with a 79% chance. To round off the 7 teams that could make the postseason if the season ended today, we have the 5-4 Jaguars (38%) and the 5-4 Steelers (36%).
The Jaguars are holding on to the final spot for the playoffs as they are second in the AFC South, but have a better record or hold a tiebreaker over the teams still in contention. As for the Steelers, despite being atop the AFC North, they are being chased by the 4-5 Baltimore Ravens.
The table below represents the AFC playoff picture if the season ended today.
| Seed | Team | Record | Playoff Probability (Current) | Playoff Probability (Win) | Playoff Probability (Loss) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | 8-2 | 92% | Bye Week | Bye Week |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 8-2 | 92% | 98% | 88% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 8-2 | 97% | 98% | 90% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-4 | 36% | 43% | 23% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7-3 | 79% | 90% | 65% |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | 6-3 | 89% | 92% | 82% |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-4 | 38% | 57% | 26% |
There are three teams in the AFC that still have an excellent chance of making it to the postseason. Of the three teams, the Ravens (4-5) currently have a 73% chance of progressing, while the Chiefs (5-4) have a 72% chance. The Houston Texans (28%) have a very low chance, but can still make it to the playoffs if several factors work out in their favor.
The table below represents the AFC teams still in contention
| Seed | Team | Record | Playoff Probability (Current) | Playoff Probability (Win) | Playoff Probability (Loss) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-4 | 72% | 81% | 59% |
| 9 | Houston Texans | 4-5 | 28% | 34% | 15% |
| 10 | Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 73% | 78% | 60% |
In the AFC, a total of 6 teams are now left with nearly no chance of progressing to the postseason. The Bengals (3-6), Dolphins (3-7), Jets (2-7), Raiders (2-7), Browns (2-7), and the Titans (1-8) are all teams whose seasons are nearly over.
Apart from the Patriots, Broncos, Colts, and the Bills, there are plenty of teams in the AFC whose fates can change in the upcoming weeks. It will be interesting to see how the Week 11 games play out and if this playoff picture undergoes major changes.
Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
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