Frech vs. Zheng: Can the Underdog Pull Off an Upset?
As the Italian Open heats up, all eyes are on the third-round clash between Qinwen Zheng and Magdalena Frech. Both players received byes in the first round: Zheng, the eighth seed, and Frech, the 26th seed. But their second-round victories showed they’re both in top form. Frech dominated Victoria Azarenka in straight sets, while Zheng made quick work of Olga Danilovic, brushing her aside with ease. Everything you need to know for their upcoming matchup is as follows.
The 27-year-old Pole, Frech, has struggled with inconsistency this season and hasn’t progressed beyond the round of 32 in any tournament, except Stuttgart, where she reached the round of 16 before falling to Jessica Pegula in straight sets.
Having a 5-11 record in 2025, her numbers reflect a season lacking momentum, with just 57.6% of service games and 28.7% of return games won, despite 40 aces heading into the Italian Open. Most recently in Madrid, she was ousted in commanding fashion by world No. 7 Mirra Andreeva.
🎾 Zheng Qinwen advances in Rome 💪
— CGTN Sports Scene (@CGTNSportsScene) May 10, 2025
🇨🇳 The No. 8 seed defeats Danilovic 6-1, 6-4 to reach the #ItalianOpen third round.
💬 "My goal was to stay steady first, then look for chances to attack."
🔥First clay win of the season #WTA #ZhengQinwen #Rome pic.twitter.com/TCqUHumvyI
On the other side, Zheng has had a stronger 2025. After early exits at Melbourne, Qatar, and Dubai, she found her groove at Indian Wells, reaching the quarterfinals before falling to world No. 2 Iga Swiatek. She followed that up with back-to-back quarterfinal runs in Miami and Charleston, notching wins over the likes of Marta Kostyuk and Elise Mertens.
At Madrid, however, she suffered a surprise straight-sets loss to Anastasia Potapova. Statistically, Zheng’s season has been well-rounded, with 71% service games won, 33.1% return games won, and a 47.7% break point conversion rate.
Magdalena Frech and Qinwen Zheng are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head. Their first meeting came at Eastbourne in 2022, where Frech struck with authority, dismissing Zheng in straight sets and delivering a bagel in the second. Two years later, at the 2024 Cincinnati Open, Zheng responded with a commanding straight-sets win of her own to even the record.
Now, as they prepare for their third showdown, the focus will be on who gains the upper hand in this growing rivalry.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Round of 32 | Qinwen Zheng | 6-1, 7-5 |
| 2022 | Eastbourne | Round of 64 | Magdalena Frech | 6-3, 6-0 |
| Magdalena Frech | Category | Qinwen Zheng |
| 25 | Ranking | 8 |
| 417-295 | Career W-L | 234-101 |
| 5-11 | YTD W-L | 9-7 |
| 1 | Career Titles | 5 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Zheng enters with stronger form and more consistent results, but Frech’s confidence after beating Azarenka makes this a closer contest than it looks on paper.
Prediction: Qinwen Zheng in straight sets
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Magdalena Frech: 5/1
Qinwen Zheng: 2/15
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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