Pegula returns to action as Samsonova rides momentum into second-round clash.
Third seed Jessica Pegula is set to face unseeded Liudmila Samsonova in the second round of the Berlin Open. Pegula enters fresh after receiving a first-round bye, while Samsonova comes in battle-tested, having edged past wildcard Naomi Osaka in a tight three-setter that featured a second-set tiebreak. With both players having something to prove on grass, this clash promises intrigue.
Pegula’s season has had its high points, including titles in Austin and Charleston, as well as runner-up finishes in Adelaide and Miami. She also made quarterfinals in Qatar and Stuttgart, showing her all-court potential.
However, since then, the American has struggled to find consistency, most notably with a surprise fourth-round exit at Roland Garros to Lois Boisson and no appearances beyond the Round of 16 in recent events. Statistically, she remains solid: across 42 matches, she’s hit 92 aces, won 66.6% of her first-serve points, and converted 44.9% of break chances.
Samsonova’s campaign has been a rollercoaster. She made a deep run to the final in Strasbourg, reached the semifinals in Adelaide, and notched a quarterfinal in Indian Wells. Outside of those performances, however, the Russian has largely failed to string together wins, frequently falling before the Round of 16.
Across 32 matches, she’s fired 96 aces, posted a 67.7% first-serve win rate, and converted 46% of her break points, numbers that suggest the potential is there, but the consistency has yet to follow.
Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head against Liudmila Samsonova, 4-1. Their rivalry began back in 2020 in Cincinnati, where Pegula edged out a three-set win. Samsonova responded the following year with her lone victory in the series, coming on grass at Wimbledon, also in three sets.
Since then, it’s been all Pegula, with straight-set wins in Rome (2022), a commanding final in Montreal (2023), and another dominant showing earlier this year in Dubai, both of the latter featuring bagel sets.
While Pegula has firmly held the upper hand in recent matchups, it’s worth noting that Samsonova’s only win came on grass. As they prepare to meet for the sixth time and once again on the lawn, this could be the Russian’s chance to finally flip the script.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Dubai | Round of 32 | Jessica Pegula | 6–0, 6–4 |
| 2023 | Montreal | Final | Jessica Pegula | 6–1, 6–0 |
| 2022 | Rome | Round of 64 | Jessica Pegula | 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2021 | Wimbledon | Round of 64 | Liudmila Samsonova | 6–4, 3–6, 6–3 |
| 2020 | Cincinnati | Qualifying R2 | Jessica Pegula | 6–3, 3–6, 6–2 |
| Jessica Pegula | Category | Liudmila Samsonova |
| 3 | Current Ranking | 20 |
| 465-259 | Career W-L | 322-209 |
| 31-11 | YTD W-L | 17-14 |
| 3 | Career Titles | 5 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Pegula has dominated this rivalry and holds the mental edge, but with her recent inconsistency and Samsonova’s only win coming on grass, this one could be tighter than expected. Still, Pegula’s overall level and experience give her a slight edge to come through.
Prediction: Jessica Pegula in straight sets
At 13/20, Pegula enters as the slight favorite, but Samsonova, at 5/4, isn’t far behind, signaling a potentially close contest.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Jessica Pegula: 13/20
Liudmila Samsonova: 5/4
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Under 22.5: 4/5
Total Games Over 22.5: 19/20
Total Games won by Pegula Over 12.5: 19/20
Total Games won by Samsonova Over 12.5: 6/5
Total Sets Over 2.5: 13/10
Total Sets Under 2.5: 3/5
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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