Italy vs Norway Preview, Betting Odds and Predictions – 16/11/25

Norway are arriving in Milan on Sunday having all but secured their place at the 2026 World Cup. They’ll be aiming to put the finishing touches on a dominant qualification run. Their trip to Italy comes with the luxury of knowing a draw is enough to seal their spot.

Meanwhile, Italy still need to find a way into the top two. Despite recent improvements under Gennaro Gattuso, their automatic qualification hopes remain slim. A big win at San Siro could do wonders for morale. Even so, it likely won’t be enough to overtake Norway.

Italy vs Norway Best Bets

Italy vs Norway Preview

Italy

Under Gattuso, Italy have rediscovered some attacking rhythm. They’ve strung together six wins since a rough start to qualifying. Their most recent win came late. Gianluca Mancini and Francesco Pio Esposito scored in the closing stages against Moldova. However, they are now missing key midfield figure Sandro Tonali.

He will miss out due to suspension risk as well as forwards Moise Kean and Niccolo Cambiaghi. Though they will be missing through injury. Expected changes could see Mateo Retegui return up front. He has already contributed five goals and four assists in this campaign. Meanwhile Gianluigi Donnarumma is likely to reclaim his goalkeeping duties.

Also Read: Major League Soccer To Change Calendar Starting in 2027

Norway

Norway’s qualification campaign has been nothing short of outstanding. They are leading Group I thanks in part to their ruthless scoring record. They’ve registered 33 goals so far and 14 of which have come from Erling Haaland. In their most recent outing, both Haaland and Alexander Sørloth netted braces as they beat Estonia convincingly. 

Coach Stale Solbakken is expected to once again rely on a frontline pairing of Haaland and Sorloth. They will likely be supported by the fleet-footed Antonio Nusa. Captain Martin Odegaard could miss through a knee injury. Defender Leo Ostigard could return following an injury absence, bolstering their backline.

Italy vs Norway Over/ Under Predictions

Total Goals Over 3.5 @ +165 as per BetMGM:

The over 3.5 goals bet looks very attractive in this match. Especially considering Norway’s free-scoring form in qualifying. The team has racked up 33 goals in Group I. It makes them the top scorers in their section and many of those have come from dynamic forward play and creative supply from midfield. 

Meanwhile, Italy have shown more firepower under Gattuso. Retegui has contributed directly to nine goals – five goals and four assists in the qualifying round. Given Norway’s offensive momentum and Italy’s potential desperation to chase goals, a high-scoring contest is far from unlikely.

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Italy vs Norway Player Picks

Erling Haaland to score anytime @ +135 as per FanDuel:

Backing Haaland to score is a smart play. He has been central to Norway’s qualification surge. 14 of their 33 group goals have come from him. In their 3-0 away win against Italy earlier in the campaign. Haaland netted one after a precise pass from Martin Odegaard. His finishing and composure in big moments make him the prime candidate to keep delivering in this return match. So the +135 line offers good value.

Mateo Retegui to either score or assist anytime @ -110 as per FanDuel:

Retegui has quietly become one of Italy’s most influential players in qualifying. With five goals and four assists so far, he’s shown a strong all-round attacking game. As Italy push to secure a top-two finish, he’ll be heavily involved in creating and finishing chances. This bet captures that dual-threat role and the -110 seems justified.

Italy vs Norway Predictions

Also Read: Liverpool Ready To Break Transfer Record for Bayern Star Michael Olise

Norway look to be cruising into the World Cup based on their dominant form and clinical finishing, led by Haaland. Italy will certainly fight. They could also grab a goal through Retegui, who has been their standout attacker. 

Final Prediction: Italy 1-3 Norway

It will be tough for Italy to defend their lead. Norway’s attacking depth and confidence make a 3-1 away win a very plausible outcome. Their previous 3-0 win over Italy earlier in qualifying shows they know how to exploit the Azzurri’s weaknesses.

Moumita Dutta

soccer

Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.

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