Sept 4 2024; Flushing, NY, USA; Jessica Pegula (USA) (right) after beating Iga Swiatek (POL) on day ten of the 2024 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

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Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for WTA Bad Homburg Open 2025 Final

11th career meeting between the WTA’s top stars.

Sept 4 2024; Flushing, NY, USA; Jessica Pegula (USA) (right) after beating Iga Swiatek (POL) on day ten of the 2024 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Competing in her first grass court final, former World No. 1 Iga Swiatek will attempt to decode the Jessica Pegula challenge in the 2025 Bad Homburg Open final. While the American took an adventurous route to reach the summit clash, the Polish sensation enters this match on the back of a relatively comfortable semifinal win. Will Pegula deny Swiatek of newfound success on the greens?

World No. 8 Iga Swiatek has fallen to her lowest Grand Slam seeding since the 2021 French Open. The 24-year-old defeated Azarenka, Alexandrova and Paolini in straight sets to advance to the final. In the process, fourth seed Swiatek earned her sixth Top-10 victory of the year, and 50th overall. She currently holds a 34-10 record in 2025, and will bid for a first WTA title in over a year.

On the other hand, Jessica Pegula has a 58% success rate on this surface. She is searching for her third trophy of this campaign, and first since April. The 31-year-old US Open runner-up is ranked No. 3 in the world, and was the highest ranked American before Coco Gauff’s impressive clay court run. Pegula defeated the likes of Siniakova and Navarro, before producing an immaculate comeback vs Noskova in Bad Homburg.

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Head to Head Record

Iga Swiatek leads the head-to-head against Jessica Pegula by 6-4. Sunday’s final is set to be the first meeting between these players on grass.

Out of their previous encounters, 9/10 Swiatek-Pegula contests have been on hard courts. Their solitary clay court match-up was dominated by Swiatek – at Roland Garros 2022. Only 3/10 matches have gone to a deciding set. However, the 2025 Bad Homburg Open final has all the ingredients to become a thriller.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024 US Open	Quarterfinal	Jessica Pegula	6-2 6-4
2023 WTA Finals	Final	Iga Swiatek	6-1 6-0
2023 Montreal	Semifinal	Jessica Pegula	6-2 6-7(4) 6-4
2023 Doha	Final	Iga Swiatek	6-3 6-0
2023 United Cup	Round Robin	Jessica Pegula	6-2 6-2
2022 San Diego	Semifinal	Iga Swiatek	4-6 6-2 6-2
2022 US Open	Quarterfinal	Iga Swiatek	6-3 7-6(4)
2022 Roland Garros	Quarterfinal	Iga Swiatek	6-3 6-2
2022 Miami	Semifinal	Iga Swiatek	6-2 7-5
2019 Washington	Round of 16	Jessica Pegula	5-7 6-4 6-1

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Career Comparison

Iga Swiatek	Category	Jessica Pegula
5	Grand Slams	0
22	WTA Singles Titles	8
0	WTA Doubles Titles	7
10	WTA-1000 Titles	3
Bronze (Paris 2024)	Olympics Best Performance	R2 (Paris 2024)
No. 8	Current World Ranking	No. 3

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula WTA Bad Homburg Open 2025 Prediction

This is going to be meeting No. 11 between these two 🫢

Stream Jessica Pegula vs. Iga Swiatek live on the Tennis Channel App 📲

You DON'T want to miss this 🙂‍↔️ #BadHomburgOpen pic.twitter.com/FhjY9GNT5q
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) June 27, 2025

Swiatek has been playing some of the best grass court tennis of her career this week. She produced a serving masterclass against Wimbledon 2024 finalist Paolini, and seems to have the steely determination required to succeed on grass. Pegula will attempt to use her tactics from past wins on this surface – she will definitely attack the Swiatek second serve to take control of the rallies.

Prediction: Iga Swiatek in three sets.

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula WTA Bad Homburg Open 2025 Betting Odds

According to the initial probability on the money line, Swiatek starts as the favourite against underdog Pegula. The Pole has a 60% chance of taking the trophy back home. Here are the odds for the result of Sunday’s final (as per BetMGM):

Iga Swiatek Win: 2/5
Jessica Pegula Win: 2/1

Coming to the in-match predictions, there is a fine margin between a potential two set or three set win for Swiatek. There is a low chance of tiebreaks on Sunday. Here are the odds (as per BetMGM):

Total Games >21.5: 9/10
Total Games By Swiatek >12.5: 23/25
Pegula +4.5 (Game Handicap): 8/11
Total Number of Tiebreaks: 7/20

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Aryna Sabalenka

Bad Homburg Open

Betting

Iga Swiatek

Jessica Pegula

Tennis

US Open

Wimbledon

WTA

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.