Germany
Paraguay
>World Cup · Round of 32Germany vs Paraguay: Prediction and Odds, World Cup, 29/06/2026
Boston Stadium hosts a knockout clash on June 29 as Germany face Paraguay in the World Cup Round of 32. Die Mannschaft, group winners seeking redemption after early exits in 2018 and 2022, are priced at 1.33 to advance. Paraguay, back in the knockouts after a long absence, will test that ambition.
Projected final score: 2-1
Germany's structural superiority is hard to ignore: their xG of 2.42 per match dwarfs Paraguay's 0.42, and they topped Group E from position 1. Priced at 1.33, they are clear favourites, though the 2-1 defeat to Ecuador and Almirón's return from suspension ensure Paraguay will not be passive opponents in this knockout tie.
A three-goal total feels right given Paraguay's defensive resilience, including 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches, and Germany's attacking underperformance from Wirtz, Musiala, and Havertz recently. 2.15 looks tempting, but Almirón's creativity and Germany's defensive lapses make a Paraguay goal likely, landing this at a tight 2-1.
Recommended Bets for Germany vs Paraguay
Germany vs Paraguay, Odds Comparison
Match Analysis
Germany enter this Round of 32 clash as commanding favourites at 1.33, topping Group E and backed by a formidable run of five wins from their last six matches, with an xG of 2.42 per game underlining their attacking dominance.
- 18 goals scored in their last 6 matches highlights Germany's relentless attacking output.
- xG of 2.42 per game versus Paraguay's 0.42 reveals a stark quality gap in the final third.
- Position 1 in Group E confirms Germany's structural superiority heading into the knockout round.
- Wirtz, Musiala, and Havertz remain available, offering world-class creativity across the attacking line.
Paraguay arrive as heavy outsiders at 8.75, having navigated a turbulent group phase, but their defensive resilience and the timely return of Miguel Almirón from suspension give them a genuine, if narrow, foothold in this tie.
- 0.42 xG per match exposes Paraguay's chronic lack of attacking threat over six games.
- Diego Gomez misses out through suspension, removing key midfield energy from Paraguay's engine room.
- Paraguay conceded multiple goals in their opening group defeat, revealing vulnerability against elite pressing sides.
Key point: With both Over and Under markets unpriced, Paraguay's four clean sheets in six games suggests backing the double chance home or draw, referencing 1.33, as a lower-risk angle.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Germany vs Paraguay
Germany
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Paraguay
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Probabilities & Odds: Germany vs Paraguay
Source : betmgm.comMatch Information
Lineups: Germany vs Paraguay
Germany
Starters
- 1 Manuel Neuer
- 2 Joshua Kimmich
- 3 Antonio Rüdiger
- 4 Jonathan Tah
- 5 Nathaniel Brown
- 6 Felix Nmecha
- 7 Aleksandar Pavlović
- 8 Leroy Sané
- 9 Jamal Musiala
- 10 Florian Wirtz
- 11 Kai Havertz
Bench
- Marc-André ter Stegen
- David Raum
- Waldemar Anton
- Malick Thiaw
- Robert Andrich
- Ilkay Gündoğan
- Julian Brandt
- Deniz Undav
- Nick Woltemade
Absent
- Nico Schlotterbeck (Ankle ligament injury (tournament-ending))
Paraguay
Starters
- 1 Orlando Gill
- 2 Richard Cáceres
- 3 Gustavo Gómez
- 4 Omar Alderete
- 5 Matías Alonso
- 6 Andrés Cubas
- 7 Matías Galarza
- 8 Adalberto Carrasquilla
- 9 Miguel Almirón
- 10 Gabriel Ávalos
- 11 Julio Enciso
Bench
- Antony Silva
- Juan Cáceres
- Fabián Balbuena
- Junior Alonso
- Mathías Villasanti
- Caleb Yirenkyi
- Ramón Sosa
- Isidro Pitta
- Maurício
Absent
- Diego Gomez (Suspension (second yellow card))
Medium confidence
A 4-2-3-1 against a 4-3-3 shapes this Round of 32 clash, with Germany's creative trio operating behind Kai Havertz. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz will look to exploit the half-spaces, while Aleksandar Pavlović and Felix Nmecha provide the defensive screen to protect Neuer's goal.
Paraguay arrive with genuine attacking intent, and Miguel Almirón returns from suspension to add pace and directness on the flank. Gustavo Gómez will be central to any defensive resilience, and how Paraguay's midfield three handles Germany's press could define whether this stays competitive deep into the second half.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Germany vs Paraguay
Germany's group-topping pedigree, four wins from five recent outings, and a significant edge in expected goals all point in one direction. Paraguay's defensive improvements are real, but their inconsistent form and inferior attacking output make an upset unlikely. The pick is Germany to win at 1.33, a price that reflects fair value given the quality gap on display. Questo articolo è a scopo informativo e non costituisce una raccomandazione di gioco.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Germany vs Paraguay?
Germany to win at 1.33 is the call here: the Germans top their group and have averaged 3 goals per game across their last six matches, a volume of attacking output that Paraguay's limited 0.42 xG per game simply cannot match in a straight knockout contest.
What is the highest odd for Germany to win?
The best available price on a Germany victory is 1.33. Bettors seeking safer coverage can explore the double chance pairing Germany or the draw, which wraps both outcomes into one ticket and reduces exposure to any late Paraguay shock.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Paraguay kept back-to-back clean sheets and generate a meagre 0.42 xG per match, pointing firmly toward a low-scoring affair. Germany's attackers have also underperformed recently. The lean is toward 2.15, with the defensive resilience on both sides making a tight, cagey knockout tie the most likely scenario.
When and where is Germany vs Paraguay played?
The match kicks off on 29 June 2026 at 4:30 PM Eastern Time at Boston Stadium in Boston, Massachusetts, as part of the World Cup Round of 32.
Can Paraguay pull off an upset against Germany?
It is a steep climb: 8.75 reflects just how wide the gap is between these two sides. However, Paraguay's defensive solidity, back-to-back clean sheets, and the return of Miguel Almirón from suspension give them a genuine platform. Germany's defensive lapses against Ecuador prove vulnerability exists, making a Paraguay goal at least plausible.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
The standout alternative is BTTS No at 1.67. Paraguay's defensive structure has produced consecutive clean sheets, and Germany's attackers have underdelivered in recent outings, making it genuinely plausible that at least one side fails to score in this knockout tie.
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