Erzgebirge Aue
TSG Hoffenheim
>DFB Pokal · 1st RoundErzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim: Prediction and Odds, DFB Pokal, 22/08/2026
The DFB Pokal first round delivers a classic cup mismatch on August 22 at the Erzgebirgsstadion, where fourth-tier Erzgebirge Aue welcome Bundesliga outfit TSG Hoffenheim. The gulf in class is stark, with Hoffenheim priced at 1.14 to advance, though Aue's unbeaten home run and raucous support could make this trickier than the odds suggest.
Projected final score: 1-3
Hoffenheim's Bundesliga pedigree gives them a decisive class advantage over fourth-tier Erzgebirge Aue, and 1.14 reflects the expectation that a recognisable top-flight XI featuring Baumann, Hlozek, and Coufal will ultimately overpower a Regionalliga Nordost side, even accounting for the seven first-team absences including Kramaric and Geiger.
Aue's run of scoring in 12 consecutive matches makes a clean sheet unlikely for Hoffenheim's depleted backline, but their attacking depth should still produce enough to win comfortably. A four-goal game feels right given both sides' attacking tendencies, making N/A a natural fit alongside this scoreline.
Match Analysis
TSG Hoffenheim enter this DFB-Pokal first round as heavy favourites at 1.14, reflecting an enormous class gap between a Bundesliga outfit and a Regionalliga Nordost side. Even depleted, Pellegrino Matarazzo's squad boasts undeniable top-flight quality.
- Two full divisions separate these sides, historically decisive in DFB-Pokal round one.
- Bundesliga average of 1.9 goals per game last season dwarfs Aue's defensive record.
- Core starters Baumann, Coufal, Hajdari, and Hlozek remain available despite the injury crisis.
- Hoffenheim won five consecutive pre-season friendlies, including a 21-0 rout, before late dips.
Erzgebirge Aue arrive at 15.50 as massive underdogs, yet their DFB-Pokal qualification via the Saxony Cup and a six-game home unbeaten run give them genuine upset credentials against a Bundesliga side missing several key players.
- Scored in 12 consecutive matches, but Regionalliga Nordost opposition is vastly inferior to Bundesliga defences.
- Aue have conceded 1.2 goals per game, a figure that will be severely tested at this level.
- No DFB-Pokal first-round win in recent history underlines a persistent cup-round curse at home.
Key point: With totals markets unavailable, the double chance covering a draw or away win complements the prediction, as Hoffenheim's injury list keeps a narrow scoreline plausible.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Erzgebirge Aue
Season statistics
TSG Hoffenheim
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Probabilities & Odds: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Source : betmgm.comMatch Information
Lineups: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Erzgebirge Aue
Starters
- 1 Max Uhlig
- 2 Patrick Kapp
- 3 Stelios Kokovas
- 4 Bastian Strietzel
- 5 Maxim Burghardt
- 6 Devin Angleberger
- 7 Linus Queißer
- 8 Simon Skarlatidis
- 9 Nils Lihsek
- 10 Marcel Bär
- 11 T. Maciejewski
Absent
- Jamilu Collins (suspended)
- Erik Majetschak (injury)
- Jonas Kehl (injury)
TSG Hoffenheim
Starters
- 1 Oliver Baumann
- 2 Vladimír Coufal
- 3 Bernardo
- 4 Albian Hajdari
- 5 Robin Hranac
- 6 Leon Avdullahu
- 7 Fisnik Asllani
- 8 Wouter Burger
- 9 Nathan De Cat
- 10 Adam Hlozek
Absent
- Ihlas Bebou (injury)
- Alexander Prass (injury)
- Tim Lemperle (suspended)
- Grischa Prömel (injury)
- Ozan Kabak (injury)
- Dennis Geiger (injury)
- Andrej Kramaric (injury)
- Koki Machida (injury)
Low confidence
Both lineups come from a single speculative source, so treat the tactical picture with caution. That said, a mirror 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 setup is expected, with Adam Hlozek leading Hoffenheim's attack against a third-tier Aue side that will need a disciplined defensive block to stay competitive.
The class gap between Bundesliga Hoffenheim and Erzgebirge Aue is significant, and Ihlas Bebou alongside Hlozek gives the visitors genuine pace and threat on the break. Aue's Marcel Bär will need to hold the ball well up front if the hosts are to create any meaningful pressure on Baumann's goal.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
The class gap between a Regionalliga Nordost side and a Bundesliga club is simply too wide to ignore. Hoffenheim's recent pre-season wobbles add a layer of intrigue, but their squad depth and technical quality should prove decisive once the competitive action begins. Aue will compete, score, and make noise at the Erzgebirgsstadion, yet the visitors have too much firepower to be denied. The pick: Hoffenheim away win at 1.14. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Away win for TSG Hoffenheim at 1.14 is the clear pick. The decisive factor is the divisional gulf: a Bundesliga side against fourth-tier Regionalliga Nordost opposition is historically one-sided in the DFB-Pokal first round, and Hoffenheim's recognisable top-flight XI is simply too strong.
What is the highest odd for Erzgebirge Aue to win?
The best available price on an Aue victory is reflected at 15.50, which is extremely generous for good reason given the class gap. Bettors seeking safer coverage can explore a double chance combining Aue and the draw, though at those odds the value is minimal and the risk remains substantial.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Hoffenheim averaged 1.9 goals per game in the Bundesliga last season, while Aue conceded 1.2 per game in a considerably lower division. The class differential points firmly to a multi-goal Hoffenheim performance. Over 2.5 goals at N/A looks like the standout angle in this fixture.
When and where is Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim played?
The match kicks off on Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 15:30 local time (CET) at the Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue, Germany, as part of the DFB-Pokal first round.
Can TSG Hoffenheim pull off an upset against Erzgebirge Aue?
Realistically, Aue face a steep climb. The 1.14 price implies roughly 88% probability of a Hoffenheim win, and history backs that up. Aue's impressive home form and Hoffenheim's three-game pre-season losing streak introduce a small upset risk, but the Bundesliga quality advantage is simply too large to overcome.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
With no BTTS or Over/Under data available for this fixture, Over 2.5 goals at N/A stands out as the best alternative. Hoffenheim's attacking firepower against a fourth-tier defence, even accounting for rotation, makes a high-scoring Bundesliga side crossing the three-goal threshold a well-supported expectation.
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