Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Dallas Cowboys Scenarios and Odds for Earning a Playoff Berth in the 2025–26 NFL Season

The Cowboys are in a must-win situation for the remainder of the season if they are to have a chance at postseason action

Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Week 14 loss against the Lions was a brutal one for the Dallas Cowboys, and especially so after the Eagles lost to the Chargers on Monday Night Football (MNF).

Had the Cowboys won, coupled with the Eagles’ loss, Dallas would have been just half a game behind, instead of the 1.5 games they are behind at the moment. With only four more games left in the regular season, Dallas’ loss to Detroit last Thursday has hurt their chances of progressing to the playoffs, but all is not lost yet.

What Are the Cowboys’ Odds of Qualifying for the Playoffs?

The Dallas Cowboys are currently 6-6-1 and second in the NFC East. As far as the conference goes, America’s team holds the tenth position with the Lions and Panthers ahead of them in the pecking order for the teams outside the playoffs looking in. So, what does Dallas’ chances of getting footballing action beyond the first week of January look like?

Below is a representation of the Cowboys’ chances to progress to the postseason as per the official NFL website, along with their odds as sourced from FanDuel.

	Playoff Chances (Current)	Playoff Chances (Win)	Playoff Chances (Loss)	Odds
Dallas Cowboys	11%	15%	3%	+610

As the above table shows, the Cowboys’ chances of progressing this year are slim. A loss in Week 15 would almost certainly erase any chance they would have, while a win also won’t increase their chances beyond 15%. That said, let us explore the possibilities the Cowboys have remaining.

The Philadelphia Eagles may have opened the door just enough to let the Dallas Cowboys steal the NFC East on the first weekend on January.https://t.co/35EGkn9R8U
— Richard Paolinelli (Author/Publisher) (@RDPaolinelli) December 10, 2025

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What Are the Scenarios through Which the Cowboys Can Make the Postseason?

As we already know, there are two ways teams can be a part of the postseason in the NFL. Seven teams from both conferences make the playoffs, with the most direct path being to win their respective divisions outright.

The Cowboys, who belong to the NFC East, are currently in second place, 1.5 games behind division leaders, the Philadelphia Eagles. Winning the division seems like the easiest way for the Cowboys to go through, but for that, two things will need to happen.

First of all, Dallas will need to win all its remaining four games. Their upcoming schedule has them playing against the Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, and Giants. The most difficult game is the Week 16 matchup against the Chargers (9-4).

Even one loss could essentially all but end any chances for Dallas, so winning out is crucial. Additionally, even if Dallas wins all 4 games, they would need the Eagles to drop 2 of their last 4 games, which may be a long shot, considering they face the Raiders, Bills, and the Commanders twice.

The second option for Dallas is to earn a wild-card berth, but that path is the more complicated one. For that to happen, they would essentially need any of the following teams to completely fall apart. Those teams are the Seahawks, Bears, 49ers, Packers, or Lions.

In short, Dallas is far away from finding itself in the thick of action beyond the first week of January. But in this league, anything can happen, as proven by the Indianapolis Colts and their terrible slide.

Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

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Devavrat Kulkarni

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I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!