The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons for Week 14 Thursday Night Football action. This Buccaneers vs Falcons matchup features two NFC South divisional rivals, with a 7-6 Tampa Bay team, going against 4-9 Atlanta squad, with the Bucs having a lot to lose, and Falcons just playing for pride and respectively record at this point of the season.
After winning the NFC South division for multiple years, the Buccaneers are on the cusp of losing their divisional title to the Carolina Panthers, tied for the first spot in their division with a 7-6 record. They are coming off a huge disappointing loss to the New Orleans Saints, arguably the biggest upsets we’ve seen this season. They are 2-5 in their last 7 games and this is definitely a bad time to fall off with the postseason approaching.
On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons are just playing for a better record and pride, as their season is already over. With 4 games remaining, their postseason hopes for the 2025-26 is gone, and their offseason will arrive early. A lot needs to change for them this offseason. While their QB1 Michael Penix Jr.’s season-ending ACL tear threw away any hope of making the playoffs, he did not exactly have a great year with a 3-6 record as a starter. In another losing season for the Falcons, their future doesn’t seem too bright.
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Rationale and Analysis
Baker Mayfield under 32.5 passing attempts is a great bet as the Falcons are a great defensive unit against the pass, ranking 6th allowing only 188 yards, but are one of the worst rush defense teams in the NFL allowing their opponent 138.5 yards on average ranking 28th. Expect Tampa Bay to use more of a run heavy approach to exploit the Falcons’ weak rush defense, leading to Mayfield under 32.5 attempts.
Bijan Robinson over 74.5 rushing yards is a great bet, as he has been Atlanta’s one of the few bright spots this season, with over 1000 yards and 5 TDs this season. With QB Michael Penix Jr. out for the season with an ACL tear, the Falcons have relied on their RB1 to make plays with over 20 rush attempts in the three of the last four games. The Buccaneers’ defense in their recent outing has started to falter, and look for Robinson to have a huge night.
Bijan Robinson anytime TD scorer is a great bet, with over 20+ rush attempts in three of their last four outings, with the Falcons heavily leaning on him to make plays. While Tampa allows only 100.4 rush yards a game, their 21st ranked scoring defense and an embarrassing 27th ranked red zone defense, makes Robinson a prime threat to score, keeping in mind the volume of touches Robinson gets in a game.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction
Bucs (7-6) are coming off an ugly loss to the Saints but still have everything to play for. Falcons, meanwhile, are (4-9) are toast with Penix done for the year, losing 7 of their last 8 matches, and basically just playing for pride at this point.
It has been hard to trust Tampa to win as of recent but they’ll do. Tampa’s better at most of the statistical category, and we smell desperate in the air with Tampa just a game away from losing their NFC South spot. Expect Baker Mayfield and the Bucs try to cook the Falcons’ defense, with them running controlling the clock, and pulling away with a close win.
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FAQs
Who is favored to win between the Buccaneers vs Falcons? The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites to win the matchup against Falcons.
What is the over/under total for the game? The over/under for total points is set at 44.5.
What is the predicted score for the Buccaneers vs Falcons game? We expect the Buccaneers to take down the Falcons, and the Final score to be 27-16.
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