Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi Head-to-Head, Prediction, and Betting Odds for ATP Cincinnati Open 2025 Round of 16

Alcaraz is set to overpower Nardi in Cincinnati fourth-round clash at Cincinnati.

Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Second seed Carlos Alcaraz will take on lucky loser Luca Nardi in the Cincinnati Open 2025 fourth round. Alcaraz opened his campaign with a first-round bye, followed by a three-set win over Damir Dzumhur and a straight-sets victory against Hamad Medjedovic. Nardi began by sweeping past qualifier Thiago Agustin Tirante, then battled past 24th seed Denis Shapovalov in a gritty three-setter. In the third round, he took the opening set against 16th seed Jakub Mensik before the Czech retired due to illness.

VAMOOOOS!!! 💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/PS3xF0VBd3
— Carlos Alcaraz (@carlosalcaraz) August 12, 2025

The Spaniard’s form this season has been electric. He’s collected five titles in Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros, and London, and finished runner-up in Barcelona and Wimbledon. Despite the latter setback against Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz’s numbers remain elite with 221 aces, 72% first-serve points won, and a 45% break-point conversion rate on 444 chances.

Get better soon, Jakub 🙏

Luca Nardi goes through as Mensik retires due to illness, 6-1 2-1. #CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/lniCLANAGq
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 12, 2025

For Nardi, top-tier results have been sparse, save for a quarterfinal run in Dubai. His Challenger campaign has been stronger, with a final in Koblenz, semifinals in Perugia, and quarterfinals in Estoril. In main draws, he’s hit 44 aces, winning 68% on first serve, just 24% on first-serve returns, and converting 39% of 75 break points.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi Head-to-Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz leads Luca Nardi 1-0 in their head-to-head, with their lone meeting coming earlier this year in Doha, where the Spaniard prevailed in three sets.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Doha	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	6-1, 4-3, 6-3

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi Comparison

Carlos Alcaraz	Category	Luca Nardi
2	Current Ranking	98
257-62	Career W-L	12-34
48-6	YTD W-L	5-10
21	Career Titles	0
5	Grand Slams	0
5	YTD Titles	0

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi Prediction

Alcaraz’s all-surface dominance, coupled with his perfect 1-0 record against Nardi, makes him the overwhelming favorite. Expect Alcaraz to dictate play and close in straight sets.

50 wins, and counting, for Carlos Alcaraz in 2025 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/aoJs2xI8FV
— TNT Sports (@tntsports) August 13, 2025

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi ATP Cincinnati Open 2025 Betting Odds

At 1/20, Alcaraz is heavily backed by bookmakers, while Nardi’s 9/1 odds reflect his underdog status.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Carlos Alcaraz: 1/20

Luca Nardi: 9/1

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 2.5: 1/5

Total Sets Over 2.5: 7/2

Total Games Under 20.5: 21/50

Total Games Over 20.5: 17/10

Alcaraz Wins Set 1: 1/9

Nardi Wins Set 1: 23/4

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Carlos Alcaraz

Cincinnati Open 2025

Luca Nardi

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.