Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for Wimbledon 2025 Round of 16

Alcaraz brings championship form into a high-stakes Round of 16 battle with the unpredictable Andrey Rublev.

Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Defending champion and second seed Carlos Alcaraz will face 14th seed Andrey Rublev in the fourth round of Wimbledon 2025. The Spaniard survived a five-set battle against Fabio Fognini in the opener, followed by more composed wins over Oliver Tarvet and Jan-Lennard Struff. Rublev, meanwhile, dropped a set to Laslo Djere and Lloyd Harris but breezed past Adrian Mannarino in straight sets.

A fourth consecutive 4R at #Wimbledon awaits Carlos Alcaraz 👏

The defending champion defeats Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 🇪🇸 pic.twitter.com/sRdINzTkPW
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 4, 2025

Alcaraz is in red-hot form this season, already lifting five titles, including Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros, and Queen’s, and reaching the Barcelona final. Statistically, he’s been sharp: 221 aces, 72% first-serve points won, 36% return points won, and 45% break-point conversion across 444 chances.

Rublev’s year has been a mixed bag. He won the title in Qatar and made the final in Hamburg but has struggled for consistency. With 231 aces, a 75% first-serve win rate, 30% return points won, and 35% break-point success, the Russian has the tools but will need to be at his best to challenge the defending champ.

Finding his rhythm 🙌@AndreyRublev97 defeats Mannarino 7-5 6-2 6-3 to make the round of 16 at Wimbledon for the third time #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/PfKGK56sp2
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) July 4, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz holds a 2-1 edge in his head-to-head against Andrey Rublev. Their rivalry began at the 2023 ATP Finals, where Alcaraz claimed a straight-sets win. Rublev responded in style at the 2024 Madrid Masters quarterfinals, rallying for a comeback victory. However, later that year, Alcaraz reasserted control with another straight-sets win at the ATP Finals, reclaiming the lead in their growing rivalry.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Carlos Alcaraz	6–3, 7–6(8)
2024	Madrid	Quarterfinal	Andrey Rublev	4–6, 6–3, 6–2
2023	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Carlos Alcaraz	7–5, 6–2

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev Comparison

Carlos Alcaraz	Category	Andrey Rublev
2	Current Ranking	14
251-61	Career W-L	353-198
42-5	YTD W-L	18-14
21	Career Titles	17
5	Grand Slams	0
5	YTD Titles	1

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev Prediction

Alcaraz comes into this match with form, confidence, and momentum on his side. With five titles already this season and a strong showing at Wimbledon so far, the defending champion looks poised to overpower Rublev, whose inconsistency could prove costly against such a relentless opponent.

Shining on Centre ✨#Wimbledon | @carlosalcaraz pic.twitter.com/g5i4Il0FBG
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 4, 2025

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev Wimbledon 2025 Betting Odds

At 1/12, Alcaraz is the overwhelming favorite, reflecting both his dominance this season and Rublev’s patchy form. Rublev at 13/2 offers long-shot value, but the gap in consistency and Grand Slam performance makes an upset highly unlikely.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Carlos Alcaraz: 1/12

Andrey Rublev: 13/2

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Games Over 34.5: 10/11

Total Games Under 34.5: 17/20

Total Games won by Alcaraz Over 19.5: 41/50

Total Games won by Rublev Over 14.5: 19/20

Total Sets Over 3.5: Evens

Total Sets Under 3.5: 10/13

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Andrey Rublev

Carlos Alcaraz

Wimbledon 2025

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.