Sep 11, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) celebrates with the championship trophy after his match against Casper Ruud (NOR) (not pictured) in the men's singles final on day fourteen of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center.

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Carlos Alcaraz Draw Analysis and Odds – What Are Alcaraz’s Odds to Win the US Open 2025?

Can the Spaniard reclaim the World No. 1 ranking?

After a disappointing campaign last year, World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz returns to New York with a point to prove. The Spaniard will be on a mission to regain his lost accolade at the 2025 US Open, which begins on August 24 at the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center. Alcaraz headlines a long list of men’s champions who will be gunning for the trophy this year. Can he repeat his heroics?

Carlos Alcaraz won the US Open title back in 2022 – he defeated Norwegian veteran Casper Ruud in the final. With the victory, the now 22-year-old won his first major championship, and also climbed to No. 1 in the world. This year, Alcaraz is the second seed behind rival and friend Jannik Sinner. Having gained some match practice at the US Open Mixed Doubles Championship despite losing in Round-1, the prodigious talent will back his chances at Flushing Meadows.

Let’s break down the draw and pre-tournament odds of World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz:

Carlos Alcaraz Draw Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz’ possible path to the U.S. Open title:

R1 – Opelka

R2 – Bellucci / Shang

R3 – Darderi / Hijikata

R4 – Medvedev / Davidovich Fokina

QF – Ruud / Shelton / Lehecka

SF – Djokovic / Rune / Mensik / Fritz

F – Sinner / Zverev / Draper / de Minaur

🇪🇸 pic.twitter.com/dco5cnkgqg
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 21, 2025

If Carlos Alcaraz had any plans of easing into the tournament and testing the waters in the opening few rounds, that plan must be thrown out of the window. The five-time Grand Slam champion has been thrown into the deep end with a high stakes Round-1 battle against big serving Reilly Opelka of USA. It will be a massive challenge for Alcaraz, who will need to deal with the booming serves of Opelka, his flat groundstrokes on the fast paced courts in New York, as well as the raucous American crowd.

After two potentially comfortable match-ups against Mattia Bellucci and Luciano Darderi, an absolute eye-catching Round of 16 battle vs 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev could await fans in the second week. With the 29-year-old Russian looking for an end-of-season renaissance, Alcaraz vs Medvedev promised a whole lot. If the Spanish bull can navigate his way into the last eight, one of his familiar foes in Ben Shelton or Casper Ruud could be his opponent. Despite Alcaraz having a +3 advantage in the head-to-head against both men, the US Open is always a tricky terrain.

Aged 22 years 3 months, Carlos Alcaraz becomes the youngest male player ever to win all four major American titles:

🏆 Miami 2022
🏆 US Open 2022
🏆 Indian Wells 2023, 2024
🏆 Cincinnati 2025 pic.twitter.com/mbNpmMSzFZ
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) August 18, 2025

The rest of Carlos Alcaraz’s draw involves him potentially beating the biggest names on the circuit to win the prize. If the rankings are anything to go by, it will be 2024 finalist Taylor Fritz or four-time USO champion Novak Djokovic who will face Alcaraz in the semifinal stage. In the summit clash, World No. 1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner or 2020 runner-up Alexander Zverev could stand in his path of making history. With the World No. 1 ranking on the line, the 2025 US Open has humongous repercussions on the future of men’s tennis.

Carlos Alcaraz Odds to Win the US Open 2025

In terms of the pre-tournament outright favourites, Carlos Alcaraz is second on the list. Top seed Jannik Sinner pips him as most likely to retain his crown in New York City. However, the Spaniard has overturned the odds in the past, and will be desperate to do so yet again. After all, he earned a confidence-boosting success at the 2025 Cincinnati Open before the major event.

Carlos Alcaraz Odds to Win the Title: 6/4

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(Image Credits: Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

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Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.