Aug 29, 2025; Flushing, NY, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) hits to Luciano Darderi (ITA) (not pictured) on day six of the 2025 U.S. Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Arthur Rinderknech Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Round of 16

Winner to face Lehecka or Mannarino in the QFs.

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz takes on Arthur Rinderknech of France in the 2025 US Open Round of 16 on Sunday. Having lost in Round-2 last year, the Spaniard has already made a significant improvement in terms of his performance at Flushing Meadows. However, nothing less than a championship run will please the perfectionist in ‘Carlitos’. Will Rinderknech play spoil sport on Arthur Ashe Stadium? BetMGM will help us with the answers we need.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Match Preview

Carlos Alcaraz is on a mission at this year’s US Open. With three dominant wins over Opelka, Bellucci and Darderi, the World No. 2 has safely secured his spot in the second week. Since losing the Wimbledon 2025 final, the 22-year-old superstar is on a winning streak of nine matches. Moreover, he leads the tour with 57 tour-level wins, 6 trophies and 7 consecutive finals reached. On hard courts this year, Alcaraz has won 74% points on first serve and 86% service games. He is on the hunt for his first hard court major since winning this tournament back in 2022.

Carlos Alcaraz into the second week without dropping a set! pic.twitter.com/8I1sn7DDnn
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 29, 2025

Arthur Rinderknech is currently ranked 80 spots behind his opponent, at No. 82 in the world. Barring a semifinal appearance at the Generali Open and the last eight at Queen’s Club, the Frenchman has failed to stamp his authority this year. So far this week, victories over Carballes Baena, Davidovich Fokina and Bonzi have boosted his record to 18-23 this year. On hard courts in 2025, the 30-year-old wins just 46% second serve points, but manages to save 70% of the break points he faces. Coming in as the underdog, Rinderknech can step on the court with a nothing to lose mentality.

For the first time in his career, Arthur Rinderknech is into Round 4 of a Grand Slam! 🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/i4Ub5M0Haa
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 29, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Head to Head Record

Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Rinderknech by 3-0 so far.

Interestingly, their first ever duel was also at the US Open back in 2021. Since then, they have faced each other twice at the HSBC Championships in Queen’s Club. While Rinderknech has given Alcaraz some minor scares in the past, he has not been able to pull off a victory so far.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Queen’s Club	Quarterfinal	Carlos Alcaraz	7-5 6-4
2023 Queen’s Club	Round of 32	Carlos Alcaraz	4-6 7-5 7-6(3)
2021 US Open	Round of 64	Carlos Alcaraz	7-6(6) 4-6 6-1 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Career Comparison

Carlos Alcaraz	Category	Arthur Rinderknech
2	Current Ranking	82
266-62	Career W-L Record	92-104
57-6	YTD W-L Record	18-23
22	Career Titles	0
6	YTD Titles	0
5	Grand Slams	0

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech US Open 2025 Prediction

Alcaraz has the x-factor which Rinderknech lacks on the big stage. The Spaniard has been striking the ball fearlessly through the line, making it difficult for opponents to generate depth on their groundstrokes. Expect plenty of drop shots from Alcaraz, testing the reach of his opponent. Meanwhile, the Frenchman will rely heavily on a high first serve percentage to take the match deep. His forehand can be dangerous when he finds the right rhythm.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in four sets.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech US Open 2025 Betting Odds

Alcaraz is the firm favourite in this US Open 2025 Round of 16 vs Rinderknech. According to the pre-match probability on the money line, Alcaraz has an 87% chance of winning the encounter. Here are the odds (as per BetMGM):

Carlos Alcaraz Win: 1/50
Arthur Rinderknech Win: 15/1

Total Games >/< 30.5: 22/25
Total Sets <3.5: 11/25
Alcaraz -2.5 (Set Handicap): 4/9
Alcaraz -7.5 (Game Handicap): 7/10
Rinderknech to Win 1 Set (No): 4/9
Total Minutes <138.5: 22/25
Total Aces >15.5: 17/20

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Arthur Rinderknech

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Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.