Burnley
Notts County
>Carabao Cup · 1st RoundBurnley vs Notts County: Prediction and Odds, Carabao Cup, 08/08/2026
Turf Moor hosts Carabao Cup first-round action on August 8 as Burnley welcome Notts County in the opening competitive fixture of the 2026-27 season for both clubs. New Clarets boss Nicky Hayen faces an immediate test of credibility, with the hosts priced at 1.45 despite a troubling 19-match winless streak spanning last season's collapse.
Projected final score: 2-0
Burnley carry a two-division advantage over newly promoted League One side Notts County, and their record of progressing in 9 of 11 Carabao Cup first-round ties underlines that structural edge. New head coach Nicky Hayen's competitive debut adds a motivational spark, and 1.45 reflects the class gap accurately here.
With Notts County missing Matty Platt (ACL) and Lewis Macari (leg fracture) and Burnley's defensive solidity conceding just 21 goals across 22 matches last season, a low-scoring home win is the logical outcome. A League One attack stripped of key personnel is unlikely to breach that backline, making 1.85 a natural fit for this fixture.
Match Analysis
Burnley enter this Carabao Cup first-round tie as clear favourites at 1.45, backed by a commanding divisional advantage over League One opposition and a remarkable record of progressing from 9 of their last 11 first-round cup ties.
- 9 of 11 Carabao Cup 1st Round ties progressed, showing consistent cup reliability at this stage.
- Two-division gap separates Burnley (Championship) from Notts County (League One), historically decisive in early rounds.
- Only 21 goals conceded in 22 matches last season, providing defensive solidity a League One attack will struggle to break.
- New head coach Nicky Hayen's competitive debut adds strong motivational incentive to end a 19-match winless run immediately.
Notts County arrive at Turf Moor as heavy outsiders at 6.75, carrying the burden of seven consecutive League Cup eliminations and a depleted squad with Matty Platt (ACL) and Lewis Macari (leg fracture) both ruled out entirely.
- Seven straight League Cup eliminations highlight a structural inability to progress in this competition.
- Matty Platt and Lewis Macari both absent, with Beck-Ray Enoru and Luke Browne also doubtful, thinning squad depth critically.
- Eight new signings still integrating means limited cohesion on competitive debut against higher-quality opposition.
Key point: With both attacks carrying uncertainty, the double chance pairing home or draw alongside N/A offers a cautious alternative angle for this low-scoring cup opener.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Burnley vs Notts County
Burnley
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Notts County
Season statistics
Probabilities & Odds: Burnley vs Notts County
Source : betmgm.comMatch Information
Lineups: Burnley vs Notts County
Burnley
Starters
- 1 Max Weiß
- 2 Kyle Walker
- 3 Joe Worrall
- 4 Bashir Humphreys
- 5 Lucas Pires
- 6 Josh Laurent
- 7 Marcus Edwards
- 8 Zian Flemming
- 9 Jacob Bruun Larsen
- 10 Andreas Hountondji
Bench
- Ben Amos
- Lluc Castell
- Ugo Raghouber
- Zeki Amdouni
- Connor Roberts
- Hannibal Mejbri
- Ellis Clark
Absent
- Manuel Benson (injury)
- Mike Tresor (injury)
- Josh Cullen (injury)
Notts County
Starters
- 1 Kelle Roos
- 2 Jacob Bedeau
- 3 Lucas Ness
- 4 Matt Baker
- 5 James Gibbons
- 6 Darius Lipsiuc
- 7 Max Sanders
- 8 Ollie Cooper
- 9 Luka Smyth
- 10 Emile Acquah
- 11 John Smith
Bench
- David Johnson
- Kyle Cameron
- Richard Brindley
- Dan Crowley
- Aaron Nemane
- Cedwyn Scott
- David McGoldrick
Absent
- Matty Platt (ACL injury, working towards a return in the new year.)
- Lewis Macari (Lower leg fracture, sidelined for the foreseeable future.)
Medium confidence
Burnley's 4-2-3-1 lines up against Notts County's 3-4-2-1 in what promises to be a tactically interesting Carabao Cup opener. The Clarets' double pivot of Josh Cullen and Josh Laurent will be tested by County's wing-backs, who carry significant responsibility in stretching Burnley's defensive shape.
Zian Flemming operates as the creative hub behind the lone striker for Burnley, while Notts County rely on the two-man support unit ahead of John Smith to generate attacking momentum. Both lineups carry a rotational feel, making transitions and set-piece discipline likely decisive factors.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Burnley vs Notts County
The two-division quality gap is the decisive factor here. Burnley's winless streak is a concern, but it came against superior opposition during a turbulent relegation campaign and uninspiring pre-season. Against League One opposition at Turf Moor, the Clarets have enough talent to deliver a professional performance. The pick is Burnley to win at 1.45, a price that fairly reflects the expected class difference on the night. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Burnley vs Notts County?
Burnley to win at 1.45 is the call here: the class gap between a recently relegated Championship side and a League One newcomer is the single most decisive factor, with Burnley having progressed from 9 of their last 11 Carabao Cup first-round ties.
What is the highest odd for Burnley to win?
The best home-win price is available at 1.45. For bettors who want safer coverage, a double chance combining Burnley or the draw in words removes the upset risk entirely, though it naturally compresses the return compared to backing the Clarets straight.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals looks the smarter play at N/A. Burnley conceded just 21 goals across 22 matches last season, and a League One attack facing that defensive solidity in a low-stakes cup opener is unlikely to produce a high-scoring affair.
When and where is Burnley vs Notts County played?
The match kicks off on Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:00 BST (14:00 UTC) at Turf Moor in Burnley, England.
Can Notts County pull off an upset against Burnley?
An upset is possible but genuinely difficult. Notts County carry seven consecutive League Cup eliminations and arrive with multiple key absentees, while 6.75 reflects just how steep the climb is. Their promotion momentum is real, but the squad depth and structural quality Burnley possess make a County win a long shot.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
Both Teams to Score: No at 1.85 stands out as the value alternative. Burnley's elite defensive record and Notts County's injury-hit attack make a clean sheet for the hosts highly plausible, offering a concrete edge beyond simply backing the home win.
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