Jun 4, 2023; Paris,France; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) at the net after their match on day eight at Stade Roland-Garros.

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2025 ATP Monte Carlo Masters Odds: Who Has the Best Odds to Win the First Masters of the Clay Season?

There will be a first-time winner at the Principality on Sunday.

Jun 4, 2023; Paris,France; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) at the net after their match on day eight at Stade Roland-Garros.

After a chaotic fortnight, we are down to four at the Principality. The competition is extremely fierce as we enter the final stretch of the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters. The semifinals will feature an all-Spanish face off, as well as a match-up between two Top-20 players. Who has the best shot at capturing their first trophy at this illustrious event?

The Monte Carlo Masters remains one of the most highly anticipated Masters tournaments during the course of the season. Stefanos Tsitsipas was the defending champion, and was defeated in the quarterfinal stage. Alcaraz is the highest seed left in the draw after Alexander Zverev was ousted by Matteo Berrettini. The surprise of the tournament has been Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – the unseeded star reached his second semifinal at the Monaco-based event.

Then there were four 👀

Who will contest the 2025 #RolexMonteCarloMasters final? pic.twitter.com/GSh9RHTPyD
— Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters (@ROLEXMCMASTERS) April 11, 2025

(3) Carlos Alcaraz – Monte Carlo Masters Odds

Carlos Alcaraz came into the Monte Carlo Masters searching for some form and momentum. However, he is known to shift gears when the clay court season arrives. It is the surface where he has won the most titles (8), including the Roland Garros championship in 2024. “Real champions find the right level when needed,” he said in his press conference after beating Arthur Fils in the quarterfinal.

Alcaraz will take on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the semifinal, against whom he has an advantageous 1-0 record. If he can scrape through, he will face either Lorenzo Musetti or Alex de Minaur in the final – he has a superior record against both players.

Odds to Win the Title: 8/13

(8) Alex de Minaur – Monte Carlo Masters Odds

Displaying an immaculate level of clay court tennis, Alex de Minaur served a double bagel to Grigor Dimitrov in his quarterfinal. Spending under 45 minutes on court, the Australian will be fresh and gunning to go when he steps onto Court Rainier III on Saturday.

Extending his record for most outright wins on the 2025 ATP calendar, de Minaur is 20-6. “As the years have gone by, I have grown to understand the things I can do well to become a tough opponent on this surface,” he said after beating Dimitrov. He also beat Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16, and has a 1-1 record against semifinal opponent Lorenzo Musetti.

Odds to Win the Title: 10/3

(13) Lorenzo Musetti – Monte Carlo Masters Odds

Italian Lorenzo Musetti overcame the gritty challenge of beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo after a three-set thriller in the quarterfinals. In the process, he entered his maiden ATP Masters-1000 semifinal. If he can capture the crown at the Principality, a Top-10 ranking will be guaranteed for the Olympic bronze medalist.

Musetti was on the verge of breaking into tears after his last eight win vs Tsitsipas. “It’s really beautiful to cry together and win together. It’s really nice,” he emoted after earning his ninth Top-10 victory. Earlier, Musetti toppled Matteo Berrettini (who beat top seed Zverev). The 23-year-old will face Alex de Minaur for a spot in the summit clash.

Odds to Win the Title: 5/1

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Monte Carlo Masters Odds

A former finalist at this event, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vowed to keep his emotions under check after a roller-coaster encounter against Jack Draper. He did so with the composure and maturity shown by true champions – the Spaniard beat Alexei Popyrin in his quarterfinal. With his 18th win of the season, ‘Foki’ matched his 2024 record of 18-22 – and we are still in April.

“When you can control [things] off the court, it’s going to be easier to control your emotions [on the court]. Today it has proved [the progress] I am making this year,” asserted the 25-year-old. Having already reached two finals earlier this year, ADF’s deep run in Monte Carlo will see him rise to No. 8 in the Race to ATP Finals.

Odds to Win the Title: 15/2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alex de Minaur

ATP

ATP Masters 1000

Betting

betting odds

Carlos Alcaraz

Lorenzo Musetti

Monte Carlo Masters

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.