Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Quarterfinals

Sabalenka’s consistency faces Vondrousova’s crafty challenge in a high-stakes US Open quarterfinal.

Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on Marketa Vondrousova in a blockbuster US Open 2025 quarterfinal. The Belarusian has powered past Rebeka Masarova, Polina Kudermetova, 31st seed Leylah Fernandez, and Cristina Bucsa with little fuss. Vondrousova, meanwhile, has been equally convincing, sweeping aside Oksana Selekhmeteva, 32nd seed McCartney Kessler, and seventh seed Jasmine Paolini before surviving a gritty three-set test against ninth seed Elena Rybakina.

Sabalenka is in red-hot form so far. Quarterfinal appearances in Rome and Cincinnati underline her consistency, while back-to-back semifinal runs at Wimbledon and Berlin prove her ability to thrive across surfaces. Titles in Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid, coupled with finals in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Stuttgart, and Roland Garros, reflect the workload of a player chasing excellence. Statistically, she’s been just as imposing. Across 61 matches, she’s fired 217 aces, won 68% of first-serve points, and converted nearly half of her break opportunities.

Aryna Sabalenka has reached the quarterfinals or better of every Grand Slam she’s played since U.S. Open 2022.

That’s 12 consecutive Grand Slam Quarterfinals.

Incredible consistency from the world #1.

🐅 pic.twitter.com/WS9J2myS1N
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 1, 2025

For Vondrousova, the path has been less straightforward. Injuries and early exits have kept her momentum in check, yet she found her spark on grass by winning Berlin, where she toppled Xinyu Wang and Sabalenka en route. In 24 matches this season, she’s struck 93 aces, held serve at 68.2%, and converted 47.6% of break points.

Marketa Vondrousova looking extremely emotional after her win at U.S. Open

So many injuries have held her back over the years but she always fights her way back to moments like this 🥹 pic.twitter.com/gtH3l28yJr
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 1, 2025

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Head-to-Head Record

Aryna Sabalenka holds a narrow 5-4 edge over Marketa Vondrousova in their head-to-head, a rivalry that has swung back and forth for nearly a decade. Vondrousova struck first with wins in Biel (2017) and Indian Wells (2018), but the Belarusian roared back, taking the next four encounters, in Libema 2018, Miami 2021, Melbourne 2022, and Adelaide 1 in 2023, to seize control. The Czech clawed her way back with victories in Stuttgart last year and Berlin this season, only for Sabalenka to restore her lead with a straight-sets triumph in Cincinnati.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Cincinnati	Round of 64	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5, 6-1
2025	Berlin	Semifinals	Marketa Vondrousova	6-2, 6-4
2024	Stuttgart	Quarterfinals	Marketa Vondrousova	3-6, 6-3, 7-5
2023	Adelaide #1	Quarterfinals	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3, 7-5
2022	Australian Open	Round of 32	Aryna Sabalenka	4-6, 6-3, 6-1
2021	Miami	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1, 6-2
2018	‘s-Hertogenbosch	Round of 32	Aryna Sabalenka	0-6, 7-5, 6-3
2018	Indian Wells	Round of 32	Marketa Vondrousova	6-2, 6-2
2017	Biel	Qualifying R2	Marketa Vondrousova	2-6, 6-2, 6-1

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Comparison

Aryna Sabalenka	Category	Marketa Vondrousova
1	Current Ranking	60
466-198	Career W-L	290-129
50-10	YTD W-L	14-8
20	Career Titles	3
3	Grand Slams	1
3	YTD Titles	1

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction

Sabalenka’s power and consistency across surfaces this year suggest she has the upper hand, but Vondrousova’s Berlin win over her proves she has the tools to spring an upset if the top seed falters.

By reaching the quarterfinals, Aryna Sabalenka will leave the U.S. Open as the world #1.

🐅 pic.twitter.com/JptOMoArJd
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 1, 2025

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova US Open 2025 Betting Odds

With oddsmakers backing Aryna Sabalenka at 8/25, the Belarusian enters as the clear favorite. Marketa Vondrousova sits at 5/2, making her the underdog in this quarterfinal clash.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Aryna Sabalenka: 8/25

Marketa Vondrousova: 5/2

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 2.5: 12/25

Total Sets Over 2.5: 13/8

Total Games Under 18.5: 39/20

Total Game Over 18.5: 2/5

Sabalenka Set 1 Winner: 2/5

Vondrousova Set 1 Winner: 19/10

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka

US Open 2025

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.