Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Semifinals

Sabalenka and Pegula set for high-stakes US Open semifinal 2025 battle.

Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The US Open 2025 semifinals are set, with top seed Aryna Sabalenka facing fourth seed Jessica Pegula. The matchup feels like a repeat of last year’s final, where Sabalenka lifted the trophy, but this time Pegula will look to rewrite the script. Both players arrive without dropping a set, setting the stage for a blockbuster clash.

2024 final 🏆
2025 semifinal 🤩

Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula's paths cross again at the business end of the US Open. pic.twitter.com/BIgHeGDjL3
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 2, 2025

Sabalenka has powered past Rebeka Masarova, Polina Kudermetova, 31st seed Leylah Fernandez, Cristian Bucsa, and Marketa Vondrousova to reach this point. Her season has been nothing short of relentless. In 61 matches before New York, she fired 217 aces, won 68 percent of first-serve points, and converted nearly 47% of break points. The Belarusian has kept her foot on the gas all year, picking up titles in Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid while making finals in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Stuttgart, and Roland Garros. Semifinal runs at Wimbledon and Berlin and quarterfinal finishes in Rome and Cincinnati only reinforce her consistency.

Jessica Pegula becomes the first woman to reach back-to back US Open semifinals without dropping a set since Serena Williams (2011-14) 😤 pic.twitter.com/KZ3TSardJP
— ESPN (@espn) September 2, 2025

Pegula, meanwhile, has pieced together an impressive New York run with wins over Mayar Sherif, Anna Blinkova, Victoria Azarenka, Ann Li, and Barbora Krejcikova. Her season, however, has been far more uneven. The American reached five finals, taking titles in Austin, Charleston, and Bad Homburg while finishing runner-up to Madison Keys in Adelaide and Sabalenka in Miami. Yet she has also suffered early exits, including a stunning fourth-round defeat to wildcard Lois Boisson at Roland Garros. Across 54 matches, Pegula has delivered 135 aces, won 67.6 percent of first-serve points, and converted just over 44% of her break points.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Record

Aryna Sabalenka holds a commanding 7-2 lead in her rivalry with Jessica Pegula. What makes the matchup even more telling is that their last three meetings have all come in finals, and Sabalenka has swept each one in straight sets. Out of the nine matches and 19 sets they’ve played, the Belarusian has claimed 15 sets, underlining her dominance.

Pegula’s rare victories stand out by contrast. She first struck in 2020 in Cincinnati, grinding through a three-setter, and later added another win at the 2023 WTA Finals, this time in straight sets. Between those two upsets, Sabalenka ran through a string of wins at Roland Garros 2020, Madrid 2021, Rome 2022, and the 2022 WTA Finals, keeping Pegula’s consistency at bay.

Year	Miami	Event	Winner	Score
2025	Miami	Final	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5, 6-2
2024	US Open	Final	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5, 7-5
2024	Cincinnati	Final	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3, 7-5
2023	WTA Finals	Round 1	Jessica Pegula	6-4, 6-3
2022	WTA Finals	Round 1	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3, 7-5
2022	Rome	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1, 6-4
2021	Madrid	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1, 6-2
2020	Roland Garros	Round of 128	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3, 6-1
2020	Cincinnati	Round of 16	Jessica Pegula	6-2, 2-6, 6-3

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Comparison

Aryna Sabalenka	Category	Jessica Pegula
1	Current Ranking	4
466-198	Career W-L	471-264
50-10	YTD W-L	37-16
20	Career Titles	9
3	Grand Slams	0
3	YTD Titles	3

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction

Aryna Sabalenka’s dominance, both this season and in her 7-2 head-to-head lead, suggests she will overpower Jessica Pegula again to take back-to-back US Open finals.

4/4 – Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka are the second players to reach all four Singles Grand Slam semi-finals in a calendar year as World Nos. 1 after Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams in 2015 (since 1975 – WTA Rankings publication). #1!#USOpen | @usopen @atptour @WTA pic.twitter.com/8Wwdk3fmcQ
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) September 4, 2025

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula US Open 2025 Betting Odds

With Sabalenka priced at 8/25 and Pegula at 13/5, the numbers back the top seed as the clear favorite, giving the Belarusian around a 76 percent chance of advancing.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Aryna Sabalenka: 8/25

Jessica Pegula: 13/5

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 2.5: 13/25

Total Sets Over 2.5: 8/5

Total Games Under 23.5: 8/15

Total Game Over 23.5: 29/20

Sabalenka Set 1 Winner: 2/5

Pegula Set 1 Winner: 2/1

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka

Jessica Pegula

US Open 2025

Rudra Dubey

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mma

I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.