Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Andrey Rublev vs. Lorenzo Sonego Head-to-Head, Prediction, and Betting Odds for ATP National Bank Open 2025 Round of 32

Rublev and Sonego Set for an H2H Decider in Toronto’s Third Round

Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Sixth seed Andrey Rublev takes on 28th seed Lorenzo Sonego in the third round of the National Bank Open in Toronto. Both players received byes and opened their campaigns with straight-set wins. Rublev eased past Hugo Gaston, while Sonego dispatched Yunchaokete Bu.

Rublev started the year strong, winning the Doha title after a gritty three-set final against Jack Draper. He also made the semifinals in Open Occitanie and the quarterfinals in Rotterdam. But since then, it’s been a shaky stretch. He made the final in Hamburg but fell flat against Flavio Cobolli and followed that up with a semifinal finish in Los Cabos. Statistically, Rublev has been solid with 307 aces, 76% first serve points won, 30% first serve return points won, and a 35% break point conversion from 301 chances.

The milestone man ⭐️

Last year's runner-up @AndreyRublev97 records his 250th hard-court win in emphatic fashion! @NBOtoronto | #NBO25 pic.twitter.com/g5gVeJMM3f
— ATP Tour (@atptour) July 30, 2025

Sonego has had a quieter season, with his best results being quarterfinals in Melbourne and Open 13 and a fourth-round run at Wimbledon. Otherwise, it’s been early exits. Still, the Italian brings consistency on paper with 199 aces, 73% first serve points won, 26% return points won on first serves, and a 40% break point conversion across 183 opportunities.

Lorenzo Sonego debutta così a Toronto 🔥

🔜 Al prossimo turno troverà Rublev@bmwitalia pic.twitter.com/Ngf127io1Z
— SuperTennis TV (@SuperTennisTv) July 30, 2025

Andrey Rublev vs. Lorenzo Sonego Head-to-Head Record

Andrey Rublev and Lorenzo Sonego are tied at 2-2 in their official ATP head-to-head. It began in 2020, when Rublev claimed a convincing straight-sets win in Vienna. But Sonego hit back, first on home soil in Rome in 2021, then on the red clay of Roland Garros in 2023, seizing control of the rivalry.

Rublev responded last year in Metz, edging Sonego in a tight contest to even the score once more. Interestingly, their first-ever meeting came way back in 2016 at the now-discontinued ATP Challenger event in Cortina, where a teenage Rublev had a straight-sets win.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024	Metz	Round of 16	Andrey Rublev	7–6(3), 7–5
2023	Roland Garros	Round of 32	Lorenzo Sonego	5–7, 0–6, 6–3, 7–6(5), 6–3
2021	Rome	Quarterfinal	Lorenzo Sonego	3–6, 6–4, 6–3
2020	Vienna	Final	Andrey Rublev	6–4, 6–4

Andrey Rublev vs. Lorenzo Sonego Comparison

Andrey Rublev	Category	Lorenzo Sonego
11	Current Ranking	38
358-201	Career W-L	156-173
23-17	YTD W-L	14-18
17	Career Titles	4
0	Grand Slams	0
1	YTD Titles	0

Andrey Rublev vs. Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Rublev may have wavered mid-season, but his recent semifinal run in Los Cabos and superior hard-court experience give him the edge.

A SPECIAL forehand on the run 🏃‍♂️@NBOtoronto | #NBO25 | @AndreyRublev97 pic.twitter.com/hBuNGdiOwI
— ATP Tour (@atptour) July 30, 2025

Prediction: Andrey Rublev in straight sets

Andrey Rublev vs. Lorenzo Sonego ATP National Bank Open 2025 Betting Odds

At 1/3, the odds favor Rublev heavily, suggesting a 75% implied probability. While Sonego at 9/4 offers value, the gap in consistency and stats on hard courts leans this matchup toward the Russian.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Andrey Rublev: 1/3

Lorenzo Sonego: 9/4

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Games Over 21.5: 1/2

Total Games Under 21.5: 29/20

Total Sets Over 2.5: 11/20

Total Sets Under 2.5: 7/5

Rublev to win: Set 1 – 11/25

Sonego to win: Set 1 – 9/5

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Andrey Rublev

Lorenzo Sonego

National Bank Open 2025

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.