NFL Divisional Round Underdog Picks and ATS Best Bets

The second round of the NFL playoffs is nearly upon us, and the stage is set for some epic battles along the way. With only 8 teams remaining in the postseason, the intensity and stakes are only going to get bigger and larger as no team wants to go home after coming this far.

The NFL Divisional Round brings us 4 games, with 2 from the AFC and 2 from the NFC. With only a couple of weeks remaining for the Super Bowl to come, the winner will come from these remaining 8 teams who are all aiming at the ultimate prize. With that said, it is now time to look at the top underdogs picks and ATS best bets ahead of exciting Divisonal round matchups coming up this weekend.

Our Top Underdog ATS Picks for the 2025-26 NFL Wild Card round

Here is a list of our top ATS underdog picks (Sourced via BetMGM).

Buffalo Bills (+1) vs Denver Broncos
Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs Los Angeles Rams

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Buffalo Bills (+1) vs Denver Broncos

Line: Bills +1 with (-115) odds at BetMGM.

The Buffalo Bills stand out as a strong underdog ATS pick in this AFC Divisional Round clash at Denver.

Despite being on the road against the No.1 seed Broncos (who have a bye-week rest advantage), Buffalo opened as favorites in many books, reflecting sharp money on their side. This Bills dominated Denver 31-7 in last year’s playoff matchup, proving they handle Sean Payton’s squad pretty well.

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Josh Allen’s elite playoff experience, road resilience (covering in recent tough wins_, and motivation in a near-even line make +1 excellent value, especially at plus-money juice for a potential outright win or narrow loss. The Bills are the No.1 rushing offense team in the NFL alongside Josh Allen and James Cook, and they are 4th in scoring offense averaging 28.3 points throughout the regular season. With elite offense on Buffalo’s side, with Josh Allen’s playoff experience, many experts lean Bills to cover or win outright.

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Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs Los Angeles Rams

Line: Bears +3.5 with (-102) odd at BetMGM

The Chicago Bears +3.5 is a great underdog ATS pick in this NFC Divisional Round home matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.

Chicago hosts at Soldier Field with strong home trends: they’re excellent as home underdogs (2-0 ATS this season) and have covered in most recent home games overall. The Bears boast a stout defense (allowing just 16.3 PPG in their last four home contests) and momentum from a dramatic Wild Card comeback win over Green Bay.

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The Rams, despite their talent (Stafford having an MVP season, elite weapons like Nacua and Adams), are road favorites but vulnerable, dropping two straight ATS away and allowing 28+ PPG in recent outings. Experts project a tight, low scoring battle with the total around 49, with Chicago covering well over 50% of simulations due to home-field advantage, potential cold/windy conditions favoring the Bears’ ground game, and historical success vs. LA at home.

At +3.5 with near-even juice, you will be getting great value on a resilient squad that keeps games close, ideal for a push or outright upset potential.

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Eric Divakaran

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I cover the National Football League and things cannot get better than that. I always dreamed to play football or basketball professionally since I’m built like a Running Back. But now that I can’t, since I’m technically in the “Unc” age, I thought why not pick a career in sports industry? So here I am, doing what I love, and hoping that the Commanders win the Super Bowl. I give love to players when it’s due, but can be critical about their performances at the same time. Enough about me, now let my articles do all the talking.