Erzgebirge Aue
TSG Hoffenheim
>DFB Pokal · 1st RoundErzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim: Prediction and Odds, DFB Pokal, 22/08/2026
The DFB Pokal first round delivers a classic cup mismatch on August 22 when fourth-tier Erzgebirge Aue welcome TSG Hoffenheim to the Erzgebirgsstadion. Aue earned their spot by lifting the Saxony Cup, but Bundesliga opposition represents a massive step up. The away win market at 1.10 reflects the gulf in quality separating these two sides.
Projected final score: 0-3
The four-division gap between fourth-tier Aue and Bundesliga Hoffenheim is the decisive factor. Aue have conceded first in 7 of their last 8 matches, while Hoffenheim's road pedigree remains formidable. Even with Kramaric, Geiger, and Machida sidelined, the visitors carry enough Bundesliga quality through Hlozek and Coufal to overwhelm a newly assembled Aue side with minimal cohesion. 1.10 reflects near-certainty here.
A three-goal margin suits the class differential without overstating Hoffenheim's sharpness after a pre-season without a win. Hoffenheim have gone Over 2.5 in 8 of their last 9 matches, and Aue's porous backline, rebuilt from scratch with 16 new signings, offers little resistance. However, Hoffenheim's rotated XI limits the ceiling, making a clean sheet for Aue unlikely but a cricket score equally improbable. 1.74 applies comfortably.
Match Analysis
TSG Hoffenheim arrive as overwhelming favourites at 1.10, reflecting a four-division class gap that the market treats as near-certainty. Despite six absentees, their probable XI still features Bundesliga-calibre players like Hlozek and Coufal.
- 16 unbeaten in their last 20 away fixtures underlines Hoffenheim's road pedigree.
- Scored first in 4 of their last 5 matches, directly exploiting Aue's fragile backline.
- Over 2.5 goals recorded in 8 of Hoffenheim's last 9 games, signalling attacking consistency.
- Bundesliga squad depth with Hlozek, Wimmer, and Coufal available despite 6 key absentees.
Erzgebirge Aue enter at 15.00, a fourth-tier side who qualified via the Saxony Cup and face top-flight opposition with a near-entirely rebuilt squad, having retained only five players from last season.
- Conceded first in 7 of their last 8 matches, a pattern Hoffenheim are primed to exploit.
- 23 departures and 16 new signings leave Aue with minimal collective cohesion this season.
- Only one injury absence recorded, yet squad quality remains fourth-tier against Bundesliga opposition.
Key point: Hoffenheim's mixed pre-season and heavy rotation could suppress the margin; the double chance covering an away win or draw favours backing 1.10 as the value anchor.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Erzgebirge Aue
Season statistics
TSG Hoffenheim
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Probabilities & Odds: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Erzgebirge Aue
Starters
- 1 Max Uhlig
- 2 Patrick Kapp
- 3 Stelios Kokovas
- 4 Bastian Strietzel
- 5 Maxim Burghardt
- 6 Devin Angleberger
- 7 Linus Queißer
- 8 Simon Skarlatidis
- 9 Nils Lihsek
- 10 Marcel Bär
- 11 T. Maciejewski
Absent
- Jamilu Collins (suspended)
- Erik Majetschak (injury)
- Jonas Kehl (injury)
TSG Hoffenheim
Starters
- 1 Oliver Baumann
- 2 Vladimir Coufal
- 3 Robin Hranac
- 4 Albian Hajdari
- 5 Mats Rots
- 6 Nathan De Cat
- 7 Leon Avdullahu
- 8 Patrick Wimmer
- 9 Bambase Conte
- 10 Adam Daghim
- 11 Adam Hlozek
Absent
- Ihlas Bebou (injury)
- Alexander Prass (injury)
- Tim Lemperle (suspended)
- Grischa Prömel (injury)
- Ozan Kabak (injury)
- Dennis Geiger (injury)
- Andrej Kramaric (injury)
- Koki Machida (injury)
Medium confidence
A mirror clash of 4-2-3-1 formations sets the tactical stage here, with both sides structured identically in theory. Hoffenheim's superior Bundesliga pedigree should tell, and Adam Hlozek operating as the lone striker gives them a dynamic focal point against a third-tier defensive block.
Aue's probable XI is sourced from Forebet dated August 17, while Hoffenheim's comes from Sports Mole on August 21, giving the visitors' lineup notably fresher and more credible grounding. Marcel Bär leads the home attack and will need a sharp performance to trouble an experienced Hoffenheim backline in this cup opener.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
The class divide between these two sides points firmly toward a Hoffenheim victory. Despite their injury concerns and underwhelming pre-season, the Bundesliga outfit possesses far too much quality for a rebuilt fourth-tier squad still finding its feet. Back an away win at 1.10 as the standout selection from this fixture. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Hoffenheim away win is the clear call here, with 1.10 reflecting near-certainty from the market. The defining factor is the four-division gap: a rebuilt fourth-tier Aue side, with 23 departures since last season, simply cannot match Bundesliga-quality depth featuring Hlozek, Wimmer, and Coufal.
What is the highest odd for Erzgebirge Aue to win?
The best price on an Aue home victory sits at 15.00, a long shot given the enormous class divide. Bettors seeking safer coverage can consider the double chance pairing Aue with the draw, though even that framing carries significant risk against a Bundesliga opponent.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Hoffenheim have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games, while Aue have conceded first in 7 of their last 8 outings. That attacking momentum from the visitors points toward a multi-goal affair, making 1.28 the logical lean for goals markets in this DFB-Pokal opener.
When and where is Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim played?
The match kicks off on Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 15:30 local time (CET) at the Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue, Germany, as part of the DFB-Pokal first round.
Can TSG Hoffenheim pull off an upset against Erzgebirge Aue?
Framing this correctly: Hoffenheim are the overwhelming favorites, not the underdog. 1.10 reflects that reality. Despite injury absences including Kramaric and Geiger, their remaining squad still operates at Bundesliga level, while Aue are essentially a brand-new fourth-tier team. A genuine upset would rank among the DFB-Pokal's biggest shocks.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
Over 2.5 goals at 1.28 offers solid alternative value. Hoffenheim's habit of scoring early and often, combined with Aue's defensive vulnerability across recent matches, creates a favorable environment for goals. This market sidesteps any residual upset risk while still capitalizing on the expected Hoffenheim dominance.
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