Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Tommy Paul vs. Elmer Moller Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Round – 1

Tommy Paul begins his US Open campaign against Denmark’s Elmer Moller.

Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Fourteenth seed Tommy Paul will open his US Open 2025 campaign against unseeded Dane Elmer Moller. Paul has enjoyed a strong season, particularly in its early stages. The American reached the semifinals in Adelaide before pushing into the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, where he fell in four sets to Alexander Zverev. He added semifinal runs in Dallas, Houston, and Rome. But his defining moment came at Roland Garros, a quarterfinal breakthrough that made him the first American man in 23 years to reach that stage in Paris. Although Carlos Alcaraz ended that run in straight sets, Paul’s surge lifted him to a career-high ranking of No. 8.

Since then, however, he has struggled, failing to advance past the second round of any tournament and even withdrawing from London as the defending champion, a dip that saw him slide to world No. 14. Still, his serve remains a weapon, with 226 aces, 72% first-serve points won, and a 45% break point conversion across 339 opportunities this season.

Paul beats Khachanov 6-3 3-6 7-6 3-6 6-3

Tommy reaches the Round of 16 for the first time.

Two five-set match wins back to back.

He’s been battling his body this week… it’s been a truly unbelievable effort.

✅Won 7 of last 8
✅24th win of the year

Man of steel.

🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/hPHG9dNqVX
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) May 30, 2025

On the other side, Moller arrives with little to lose. Currently ranked No. 109, the 22-year-old has shown promise on the Challenger circuit, winning titles in Oeiras and Iasi while reaching a final in Girona. Yet on the main stage, his progress has been limited to first-round exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. His main-draw stats, with 13 aces, 57% first-serve points won, and 52% return points won, flatter his limited experience, but his grit makes him a dangerous underdog.

Strong start for Elmer Moller 💪

The Dane wins his opening match in Bonn, beating Villanueva 7-6(4), 6-2#ATPChallenger pic.twitter.com/veLxtCKl0U
— ATP Challenger Tour (@ATPChallenger) August 5, 2025

Tommy Paul vs. Elmer Moller Head-to-Head Record

Tommy Paul carries a 1-0 head-to-head lead over Elmer Moller, having rallied past the Dane in their Roland Garros clash just a month ago.

year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Roland Garros	Round of 128	Tommy Paul	6-7(5), 6-2, 6-3, 6-1

Tommy Paul vs. Elmer Moller Comparison

Tommy Paul	Category	Elmer Moller
14	Current Ranking	109
203-137	Career W-L	5-8
27-12	YTD W-L	1-6
4	Career Titles	0
0	Grand Slams	0
0	YTD Titles	0

Tommy Paul vs. Elmer Moller Prediction

Paul’s early-season highs and Paris breakthrough suggest experience should carry him through, but Moller’s hunger on debut makes this more than a formality.

Tommy Paul is into the quarter-final for the first time! 🙌

🇺🇸 The American defeats Alexei Popyrin in straight sets to set up a last eight battle with either Carlos Alcaraz or Ben Shelton!#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/KYB7UgPAB8
— TNT Sports (@tntsports) June 1, 2025

Prediction: Tommy Paul in straight sets

Tommy Paul vs. Elmer Moller US Open 2025 Betting Odds

With the bookmakers heavily favoring him at 1/20, Tommy Paul is expected to cruise, though Moller at 19/2 could tempt risk-takers.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Tommy Paul: 1/20

Elmer Moller: 19/2

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 4.5: 1/14

Total Sets Over 4.5: 13/2

Total Games Under 26.5: 29/20

Total Game Over 26.5: 13/25

Paul Set 1 Winner: 1/7

Moller Set 1 Winner: 17/4

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Elmer Moller

Tommy Paul

US Open 2025

Rudra Dubey

nfl

mma

I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.