Check our Texans vs Chiefs predictions for first NFL Divisional round game of the week end with Chiefs starting their 3-peat quest
The Kansas City Chiefs, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, are aiming for a historic third consecutive Super Bowl title. They face the Houston Texans, who are coming off a decisive 32-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.
The Chiefs, having secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed, enjoyed a bye during Wild Card Weekend and will host the Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 PM local time (4:30 PM ET) and will be broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Let’s dive in our Texans vs Chiefs predictions for this NFL Divisional Round game.
Texans vs Chiefs odds via BetMGM
Spread: Texans +8.5 | Chiefs -8.5
Moneyline: Texans +375 | Chiefs -500
Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Game Details
• Date: Saturday, Jan. 18th
• Time: 4:30 pm ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Broadcast: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Texans vs Chiefs Game Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs had a rather peculiar 2024 NFL season! Despite their offense being less than dazzling, the reigning two-time NFL champions never managed to score more than 30 points in a regular-season game.
However, this didn’t stop Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and their teammates from racking up wins, finishing with an impressive 15-2 record. Their second loss came in the final week against Denver in a game without any stakes, as the Chiefs rested their starters.
As for the Houston Texans, they performed well during the regular season when facing division rivals, securing the AFC South title for the second consecutive year.
However, when facing tougher opposition, the Texans often struggled to step up their game. In the first round of the NFL playoffs, the Texans convincingly defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12, despite a rocky start to the game.
Heading into this NFL playoff matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs come in with confidence after a successful regular season both in terms of their record and head-to-head results against the Houston Texans.
The Chiefs have won the last four encounters between the two teams, including a 27-19 victory just a month ago on the Texans’ home turf. As for their last playoff meeting, it was an offensive shootout, with the Chiefs emerging victorious by a score of 51-31.
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
If the Kansas City Chiefs enter this NFL playoff campaign with the best record in the AFC, it’s undoubtedly thanks in large part to their defense, which has stepped up during challenging games.
Led by Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs’ defensive unit has been highly effective against the run, allowing just 19.2 points per game since the start of the season—ranking fourth-best in the league. This average even includes their final game against the Broncos, where they gave up 38 points in a meaningless matchup.
On the other side of the ball, things are much more complicated for the Chiefs’ offense. While there’s little doubt that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will effortlessly connect when the time comes in the playoffs, the running game has been far less sharp than in previous seasons.
Kansas City’s rushing attack ranks only 22nd in the NFL in average yards per game and 29th in yards per play. Improvement in this area will be crucial to avoid putting the entire burden on Mahomes as the team’s sole savior.
During their impressive 2023 campaign, the Houston Texans relied on a high-powered offense. However, their approach for the 2024 NFL playoffs has shifted, with DeMeco Ryans’ squad prioritizing defense to secure victories.
In the Wild Card round, the Texans recorded four interceptions against Justin Herbert—who had thrown only three all season. The Chiefs have been warned: Houston’s defense is riding high on confidence.
Plagued by injuries, including those to Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, the Texans have struggled to establish an efficient offensive rhythm. While their passing game remains the focal point of their strategy, Joe Mixon is doing his best to contribute in the running game.
However, a lack of alternative options has hindered the Texans’ ability to develop the ground attack they would ideally like to have.
PICK 1 – CJ Stroud : Under 228.5 passing yards (-115)
PICK 2 – Texans +9 (-125)
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Multiple betting features including live streaming
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Key Stats
Mahomes threw for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while also contributing 307 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Tight end Travis Kelce was a key target, recording 823 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
The Chiefs’ defense was ranked 12th in the league, allowing 19.2 points per game.
Defensively, the Texans were formidable, ranking third in the league and recording 49 sacks during the regular season, tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
Linebacker Henry To’oTo’o led the team with 104 tackles, and edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. were instrumental in applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
In their Week 16 matchup on December 21, 2024, the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19. Mahomes threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns, while Stroud passed for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Global Editorial Chief of The Playoffs, I created The Free Agent, which became The Playoffs FR, in 2020 during the pandemic. A longtime fan of the four major American sports, I now oversee the editorial strategy and social media for all versions of The Playoffs. I still occasionally write about sports I’m particularly passionate about, such as the NFL or MLB. If there’s one thing you should remember: Eli Manning is the true GOAT for beating Tom Brady twice.
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