Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Fourth seed Novak Djokovic faces fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti in a 2026 Australian Open quarterfinal that pits proven Grand Slam control against extended-match resilience. Djokovic has not dropped a set in Melbourne, moving past Pedro Martínez, Francesco Maestrelli, and Botic van de Zandschulp. Followed by advancing in the fourth round via walkover when Jakub Mensik withdrew with an abdominal injury. At 38, the 24-time major champion remains firmly in contention for a historic 25th Slam.
Musetti’s path has been far more physically demanding. After benefiting from a first-round retirement of Raphael Collignon, he beat Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets. Then he survived a five-set marathon against Tomas Machac and had a straight-sets win over ninth seed Taylor Fritz. Ranked No. 5, this marks Musetti’s deepest run in Melbourne and continues a pattern of long matches against elite opposition.
Now, Djokovic is a clear favorite, but totals and set markets acknowledge Musetti’s ability to extend matches. With both players posting strong serve efficiency in 2025 and Djokovic historically conceding sets to Musetti, the central tension lies between Djokovic’s control and Musetti’s resistance.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Australian Open, Quarterfinal (QF)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 28, Not before 2:30 PM AEDT Local Time
New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.
Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Over 38.5 Total Games (-120, FanDuel)
The moneyline implies Djokovic wins. In 2025, Djokovic won 77% of first-serve points, returned 32% of first-serve points, and converted 42% of break points (403 chances). Musetti’s stats are slightly lower but still competitive with 72% first-serve points won, 30% first-serve return points won, and 39% break-point conversion across 540 opportunities. That gap supports Djokovic’s favoritism.
Where totals gain value is in how Musetti loses, as his 2025 stats say, 310 aces and high break-chance volume, meaning he can protect serve often enough to stretch sets even when trailing. The Over 38.5 games capture both dominant and competitive Djokovic scripts.
New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.
Novak Djokovic has a 9-1 lead over Lorenzo Musetti in their head-to-head. The sole time Musetti managed to win was in 2023 in Monte Carlo, and even that was a comeback win. While the dominance is clear, several meetings required extended play, including five sets at Roland Garros and tight three-set finals.
Year
Winner
Event
Round
Score
2025
Novak Djokovic
Athens
Final
4-6, 6-3, 7-5
2025
Novak Djokovic
Miami
Round of 16
6-2, 6-2
2024
Novak Djokovic
Paris Olympics
Semifinal
6-4, 6-2
2024
Novak Djokovic
Wimbledon
Semifinal
6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4
2024
Novak Djokovic
Roland Garros
Round of 32
7-5, 6-7(6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-0
2024
Novak Djokovic
Monte-Carlo
Round of 16
7-5, 6-3
2023
Lorenzo Musetti
Monte-Carlo
Round of 16
4-6, 7-5, 6-4
2022
Novak Djokovic
Paris
Quarterfinal
6-0, 6-3
2022
Novak Djokovic
Dubai
Round of 32
6-3, 6-3
2021
Novak Djokovic
Roland Garros
Round of 16
6-7(7), 6-7(2), 6-1, 6-0, 4-0 (Ret.)
Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop
Projection: Novak Djokovic wins in four sets.
Higher Variance Set Prop: Over 3.5 Sets (-164, FanDuel). Given that this is a high-risk bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary angle.
How can I watch Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti on TV and live stream?
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.
Match
Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Date
January 28, 2026
Start Time
Not before 2:30 PM AEDT
Tournament
Australian Open 2026
Event Type
Men’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface
Outdoor Hard Court
Court
Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.
nfl 
mma 
