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Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Baez Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Second seed Luciano Darderi meets third seed Sebastian Baez in the semifinals of the 2026 Chile Open in Santiago on clay. Both received first-round byes. Darderi survived three-set matches against Mariano Navone and Andrea Pellegrino, while Baez opened with a three-set win over Cristian Garin before beating eighth seed Alejandro Tabilo in straight sets.
Darderi, now ranked No. 21 (career-high), has built momentum over the past 12 months on clay. In 2025, he won titles in Marrakesh, Bastad and Umag, plus a Challenger title in Genoa. His 2026 start included a quarterfinal in Auckland, a career-best fourth round at the Australian Open, and a final in Buenos Aires before an early Rio exit. Statistically in 2025, he won 71% of first-serve points and struck 327 aces, but his return profile (29% first-serve return points won, 37% break conversion) is more average for clay.
Baez, ranked No. 52, brings a different clay identity. He won Rio in 2025 and made finals in Bucharest and Santiago, with a quarterfinal in Nordea. This season he reached the final in Auckland and the semifinal in Buenos Aires before a Rio stumble. His 2025 stats show just 63% first-serve points won and only 70 aces all season, but he compensates with stronger return stats of 34% first-serve return points won and a 43% break-point conversion rate.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Baez today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-128, FanDuel)
Book: Best price at FanDuel
Our best bet for Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Baez is Over 21.5 Games (-128, FanDuel).
Given below are the latest odds for Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Baez from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | Darderi -172 / Baez +140 | Darderi -182 / Baez +145 |
| Game Handicap | Darderi -2.5 (-122) / Baez +2.5 (-110) | Darderi -2.5 (-125) / Baez +2.5 (-104) |
| Total Games | Over 21.5 (-128) / Under 21.5 (-106) | Over 22.5 (-105) / Under 22.5 (-125) |
| Set Betting | Darderi 2-0 (+130) / Baez 2-0 (+300) | Darderi 2-0 (+135) / Baez 2-0 (+325) |
| Total Sets (2.5) | Over (+134) / Under (-182) | Over (+130) / Under (-167) |
Our Pick: Over 21.5 Games (-128, FanDuel)
This matchup profiles tighter than the -172 suggests. Darderi’s serve is stronger (71% first-serve points won vs. 63%), but Baez holds the return edge (34% vs. 29%) and converts break chances at a higher rate (43% vs. 37%). On clay, where return pressure compounds over longer rallies, that statistical split reduces the probability of a clean two-set separation.
The total at 21.5 provides a cleaner exposure path. A three-set match is cleared comfortably, and even two competitive sets get there. At -128, the Over is slightly juiced but more efficient than laying -172 on a matchup that statistically projects closer to coin-flip territory match.
Luciano Darderi and Sebastian Baez are tied 4-4 in their head-to-head. Though Darderi won both meetings in 2026, including a straight-set semifinal win in Buenos Aires.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Luciano Darderi | Buenos Aires | Semifinal | 7-6(2), 6-1 |
| 2026 | Luciano Darderi | Australian Open | Round of 64 | 6-3, 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2025 | Luciano Darderi | Bastad | Quarterfinal | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Sebastian Baez | US Open | Round of 128 | 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-0, 7-6(4) |
| 2024 | Sebastian Baez | Hamburg | Quarterfinal | 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Sebastian Baez | Buenos Aires | Round of 16 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| 2024 | Luciano Darderi | Cordoba | Semifinal | 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Sebastian Baez | Cordoba | Round of 16 | 6-3, 6-4 |
Projection: Luciano Darderi wins in three sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+134, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher-risk bet, it is advised to use this as a secondary angle.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Chile Open include Tennis Channel (United States), Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), TSN / TVA Sports (Canada), beIN Sports (France), beIN Sports (Australia), Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand), and ESPN / Star+ (Latin America).
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Live streaming is available globally on Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform). Additional streaming is available via Tennis Channel Plus (USA), Sky Go / NOW (UK & Ireland), TSN app (Canada), beIN CONNECT (France & Australia), and Sky Sport Now (New Zealand).
| Match | Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Baez |
| Date | February 28, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not Before 7:10 PM CLST Local Time |
| Tournament | Chile Open 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (ATP 250) |
| Surface | Outdoor Clay Court |
| Court | Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Santiago, Chile |
| TV Coverage | Tennis Channel (United States), Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), TSN / TVA Sports (Canada), beIN Sports (France), beIN Sports (Australia), Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand), ESPN / Star+ (Latin America). |
| Live Streaming | Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform), Tennis Channel Plus (USA), Sky Go / NOW (UK & Ireland), TSN app (Canada), beIN CONNECT (France & Australia), Sky Sport Now (New Zealand), ESPN / Star+ digital platforms (Latin America). |
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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