Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti faces fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego in the second round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne. Apparently, this matchup is a competitive favorite and not a mismatch. Musetti advanced when Raphael Collignon retired in the fourth set due to cramps and dizziness, while Sonego came through cleanly in straight sets over Carlos Taberner.
Musetti enters as world No. 5 after a runner-up finish in Hong Kong (doubles). While 2025 didn’t bring a title, it was still his best season by consistency at the top end with finals in Monte Carlo, Chengdu, and Hellenic, plus deep Masters and Slam runs. His 2025 stats reflect a solid all-court player rather than pure serve dominance. He fired 310 aces, won 72% of first serve points, won 30% of first serve return points, and had a 39% break-point conversion across 540 opportunities.
All class Lorenzo Musetti 🤝
After opponent Raphael Colligno was forced to retire, the Italian left this wholesome message. pic.twitter.com/0POmITAHNP
Sonego is world No. 40 and comes with a higher-variance, serve-driven baseline. He’s also quietly familiar with Musetti’s patterns from partnering with him in doubles. Stat-wise in 2025, Sonego posted 346 aces, 73% first serve points won, 26% first serve return points won, and the exact same 39% break-point conversion (320 opportunities). That symmetry is why the betting board is interesting here.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Australian Open, Second Round (R64)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 22, Not before 11:30 AM AEDT Local Time
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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Lorenzo Musetti 3-0 Sets (-145, FanDuel).
This is the type of match where the moneyline price is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but the underlying matchup suggests it may not be the most efficient way to bet it. Musetti is deservedly favored at -260 based on ranking (No. 5 vs. No. 40) and his 2025 high-end results. But his statistical edge isn’t overwhelming on hard courts, and Sonego’s serve stats tend to make rallies extend.
Both players sit in a similar band on serve points won (Musetti 72%, Sonego 73%) and both converted 39% of break points in 2025. The biggest separation is on first-serve return points won (Musetti at 30% vs. Sonego at 26%), which is meaningful but not massive in a best-of-five. Add in that Musetti didn’t get a full match in round one due to retirement (which can cut both ways), while Sonego progressed comfortably, and you get a strong case for this being at least a four-setter.
That’s why Over 3.5 Sets (-168) is the cleanest price-efficient angle across the board.
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
Lorenzo Musetti and Sonego are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head.
Year
Winner
Event
Round
Score
2025
Lorenzo Sonego
Paris
Round of 32
3-6, 6-3, 6-1
2024
Lorenzo Musetti
Vienna
Round of 32
6-3, 6-2
Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop
Projection: Lorenzo Musetti wins in four sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Musetti 3-0 (+195, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option rather than a primary one.
How can I watch Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego on TV and live stream?
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.
Match
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Date
January 22, 2026
Start Time
Not before 11:30 AM AEDT
Tournament
Australian Open 2026
Event Type
Men’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface
Outdoor Hard Court
Court
Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.
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