Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Round of 64, January 22)

Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch

Fifth seed Elena Rybakina is set to clash with Varvara Gracheva in the second round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne. Rybakina opened with a clean straight-set win over Kaja Juvan, while Gracheva had to survive a gritty three-set match against Viktorija Golubic.

Rybakina is world No. 5 and comes in off a Brisbane quarterfinal (losing to Karolina Muchova in three sets). Her 2025 season was strong with titles in Stuttgart, Strasbourg, Ningbo, and the WTA Finals, plus a fourth-round run in Melbourne. Stat-wise across 93 matches last season, she fired 516 aces, 75.3% first serve points won, 43.8% return points won, and a 44.5% break-point conversion rate.

Round 2 beckons ✌️

Elena Rybakina maintains her perfect Australian Open first round record, defeating Juvan in straight sets.#AO26 pic.twitter.com/4Yh5yo4XWc
— wta (@WTA) January 20, 2026

Gracheva is currently world No. 77 and enters with far less tour-level experience. Her 2025 season was mostly early exits at the WTA level, with her deeper runs coming occasionally. Her stats (2025) are just 60.8% first serve points won across 34 WTA matches with 74 aces. While her return points won (43.4%) are respectable, still Rybakina is far ahead.

For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.

Tournament & Round: Australian Open, Second Round (R64)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: January 22, Not before 8:40 PM AEDT Local Time
Court: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia

Best Bet: Elena Rybakina -6.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)

Book: Best price at FanDuel

Our best bet for Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva is Elena Rybakina -6.5 Games (-126, FanDuel).

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Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva Odds

Given below are the latest odds for Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.

Market	FanDuel	BetMGM
Moneyline	Rybakina -4000 / Gracheva +1400	Rybakina -2000 / Gracheva +1000
Game Handicap	Rybakina -6.5 -126 / Gracheva +6.5 -102	Rybakina -6.5 -114 / Gracheva +6.5 -111
Total Games	Over 17.5 -126 / Under 17.5 -104	Over 18.5 +108 / Under 18.5 -138
Set Betting	Rybakina 2-0 -475 / Gracheva 2-0 +2700	Rybakina 2-0 -500 / Gracheva 2-0 +2000
Total Sets	Over 2.5 +410 / Under 2.5 -650	Over 2.5 +360 / Under 2.5 -550

Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva Prediction & Picks

Our Pick: Elena Rybakina -6.5 Games (-126, FanDuel).

Rybakina is priced as a heavy favorite for good reason, but -4000 on the moneyline is a non-starter in terms of price efficiency. The matchup edge is clear from the 2025 serve stats. Rybakina won 75.3% of first serve points, while Gracheva was down at 60.8%, which is a major gap in hold stability. Plus, Rybakina has a solid 44.5% break point conversion rate as a compliment here. On top of that, Rybakina’s ace production (516 aces) is a constant buffer against random service breaks.

That’s why Rybakina -6.5 games (-126) is the best-value primary angle. It avoids the inflated risk premium of the straight-sets price (-475) while still aligning with the likely script. The risk is that Gracheva’s return numbers (43.4% return points won) do give her a path to at least one break, and if that break lands in the “wrong” set, you can get stuck and miss the cover.

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Elena Rybakina Recent Form

Wuhan – Quarterfinal
Ningbo – Title
Tokyo – Semifinal (Retired)
WTA Finals – Title
Brisbane – Quarterfinal

Full Press conference of Elena Rybakina after R1 win vs Juvan#AusOpen2026
📸: AO / Youtube pic.twitter.com/43icb41v7r
— Sebastien G. (@sebsharfam2) January 20, 2026

Varvara Gracheva Recent Form

Wuhan – R64
Osaka – R32
Tokyo – R16
Auckland – R32
Hobart – R32

🇫🇷 Varvara Gracheva au 2e tour de l'Open d'Australie 🤩

Belle victoire en 3 sets face à la Suissesse Viktorija Golubic (6-1, 2-6, 6-1) 👏

RDV au prochain tour face à Elena Rybakina ⏳

📸 FFT pic.twitter.com/PbWp4G1XTd
— SPORTRICOLORE (@sportricolore) January 20, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Elena Rybakina has the lead 2-0 in her head-to-head against Varvara Gracheva.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Score
2023	Elena Rybakina	Indian Wells	Round of 16	6-3, 6-0
2022	Elena Rybakina	St. Petersburg	Round of 32	6-2, 6-1

Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop

Projection: Elena Rybakina wins in straight sets.

Higher Variance Set Bet: Rybakina 2-0 (-475, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option.

How can I watch Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva on TV and live stream?

TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.

Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.

Match	Elena Rybakina vs. Varvara Gracheva
Date	January 22, 2026
Start Time	Not before 8:40 PM AEDT
Tournament	Australian Open 2026
Event Type	Women’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface	Outdoor Hard Court
Court	Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
TV Coverage	ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW
Live Streaming	ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)

Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.